Mainz at St. Pauli
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Mainz
-0.5
63% posterior win prob vs +140 odds (42% breakeven) creates massive EV mismatch vs ML -150
Ω Bottom Line
Mainz -0.5 +140 yields +51 EV at 63% posterior vs ML -150 inefficiency
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Mainz
Line: -0.5
63% posterior win prob vs +140 odds (42% breakeven) creates massive EV mismatch vs ML -150
Game Analysis
Posterior fuses to 63% Mainz win matching devigged ML market but spread +140 massively outperforms -150 for identical -0.5 outcome. Minor $1k whales on St. Pauli (low conviction, 0 profitable wallets). No injuries/situational edges; poor data (29%) and N=0 cap at LEAN tier.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Danel Sinani
St. Pauli
Under 0.5 goals
58%
Season 5 goals in 28 matches (0.18 gpg); model projects 0.3 in low total game
PROP ALERT
Joel Chima Fujita
St. Pauli
Under 0.5 assists
57%
3 assists in 29 matches; low usage in projected underdog spot
PROP ALERT
Hauke Wahl
St. Pauli
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
56%
Defender low volume; matchup vs Mainz limits chances (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Nikola Vasiljev
St. Pauli
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
59%
Limited starter mins; underdog game caps shots
PROP ALERT
Daniel Batz
St. Pauli
Over 3.5 saves
60%
Goalie in underdog spot vs favored Mainz projects higher shots faced
PROP ALERT
Danel Sinani
St. Pauli
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
Model adjusts down for home underdog pace
PROP ALERT
Joel Chima Fujita
St. Pauli
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
56%
Midfield role, low shots vs strong Mainz D
PROP ALERT
Nadiem Amiri
Mainz
Under 0.5 goals
59%
11 goals in 23 but 0.48 gpg regresses in road fav spot (model)
PROP ALERT
Kaishu Sano
Mainz
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
High mins but low efficiency vs St. Pauli D
PROP ALERT
Nadiem Amiri
Mainz
Under 2.5 shots_on_target
60%
Model projects 2.0 but caps in controlled game