Mainz at TSG Hoffenheim

Bundesliga April 04, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

TSG Hoffenheim

-0.5

Hoffenheim's 15-5-7 record vs Mainz 7-9-11 creates 5% prob edge over -0.5 line

Ω Bottom Line

Hoffenheim ML +4.2 EV: 15-5-7 record projects 64% vs 59% implied; Kramaric finishes

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

TSG Hoffenheim

Line: -0.5

65%

Hoffenheim's 15-5-7 record vs Mainz 7-9-11 creates 5% prob edge over -0.5 line

MONEYLINE

TSG Hoffenheim

64%

Record gap projects 64% win prob vs 59% implied; ML profitable tier historically

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

58%

Bundesliga mid-table games average 2.3 goals; totals losing across tiers

Game Analysis

Hoffenheim's 15-5-7 record towers over Mainz 7-9-11, projecting 64% win prob vs -140 implied 58%. Kramaric (10G) and Amiri (10G) feast at home while Mainz struggles away. Total 3.5 undervalues Bundesliga's 3.2 gpg avg in sharp home spots.

Game Theory & Utilization

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Andrej Kramaric TSG Hoffenheim

Over 0.5 goals 60%

10 goals in 27 matches; primary finisher in strong home matchup

PROP ALERT

Nadiem Amiri TSG Hoffenheim

Under 0.5 goals 58%

10 goals in 20 matches but secondary role; model projects 0.3

PROP ALERT

Bazoumana Touré TSG Hoffenheim

Over 0.5 assists 59%

7 assists in 23 matches; creative midfielder vs leaky Mainz backline

PROP ALERT

Danny da Costa TSG Hoffenheim

Under 0.5 assists 60%

3 assists in 27; limited creator role behind Touré

PROP ALERT

Andrej Kramaric TSG Hoffenheim

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

High volume shooter as focal point; home games boost attempts

PROP ALERT

Nadiem Amiri TSG Hoffenheim

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

Secondary shooter; projects under vs solid Mainz GK

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Burkardt Mainz

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Mainz poor away form limits chances; model projects 0.3 goals

PROP ALERT

Leandro Barreiro Mainz

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

Midfield role limits shots vs Hoffenheim press

PROP ALERT

Andrej Kramaric TSG Hoffenheim

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

Variance in finishing; cap at low confidence

PROP ALERT

Bazoumana Touré TSG Hoffenheim

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Winger volume vs weak fullback matchup

PROP ALERT

Nadiem Amiri TSG Hoffenheim

Under 0.5 assists 58%

Goal-focused CAM; low assist volume

PROP ALERT

Danny da Costa TSG Hoffenheim

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Depth role limits opportunities

PROP ALERT

Ermal Krasniqi Mainz

Under 0.5 assists 59%

Fringe player; low usage projection

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Burkardt Mainz

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 60%

Away struggles reduce volume vs Hoffenheim defense

PROP ALERT

Leandro Barreiro Mainz

Under 0.5 goals 58%

DM role; rare scorer

PROP ALERT

Phillipp Mwene Mainz

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

FB limited attacking threat

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail