Mallorca at Getafe

La Liga May 13, 2026 07:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Getafe

-0.5

calibrated 45.5% near +110 implied 47.6% breakeven despite vig.

Ω Bottom Line

Getafe ML +120 at model posterior 45.5% breakeven; 0.5 EV edge in plus-money spot.

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Getafe

Line: -0.5

55%

calibrated 45.5% near +110 implied 47.6% breakeven despite vig.

MONEYLINE

Getafe

56%

Home ML posterior exactly matches market-implied 45.5% at +120 breakeven.

TOTAL

under

Line: 1.5

55%

Getafe/Mallorca defensive profiles (low xG teams); total 1.5 fits LaLiga under bias.

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior pegs Getafe win at 44.4%, exact breakeven for +125 ML with no edge but value vs juiced -245 away (71% breakeven). Spread -0.5 +110 similar but worse payout. Under 2.5 leans on LaLiga 2.62 avg goals (52% historical under rate); poor data caps confidence.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Mauro Arambarri Getafe

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Season avg 6 goals/34 matches (0.18/gm); low-volume mid vs Mallorca def.

PROP ALERT

Luis Milla Getafe

Under 0.5 assists 57%

9 assists/34 (0.26/gm); model proj conservative usage.

PROP ALERT

David Soria Getafe

Over 3.0 saves 56%

110 saves/34 gm avg 3.24; Mallorca low shots expected.

PROP ALERT

Mauro Arambarri Getafe

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Model proj 0.6 SOT/gm for primary mid.

PROP ALERT

Luis Milla Getafe

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Low volume passer; proj under vs Mallorca.

PROP ALERT

David Soria Getafe

Over 2.5 saves 57%

Consistent GK volume in low-total spot.

PROP ALERT

Mauro Arambarri Getafe

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Secondary creator; low assist rate.

PROP ALERT

Luis Milla Getafe

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Model proj low SOT for deep mid.

PROP ALERT

Vedat Muriqi Mallorca

Over 0.5 goals 60%

22 goals/34 (0.65/gm); high-usage striker model proj.

PROP ALERT

Sergi Darder Mallorca

Under 0.5 assists 57%

5 assists/35 low rate; secondary role.

PROP ALERT

Leo Román Mallorca

Over 2.5 saves 56%

98 saves/34 avg 2.88; Getafe attack volume.

PROP ALERT

Vedat Muriqi Mallorca

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

High-volume striker proj 1.8 SOT vs Getafe.

PROP ALERT

Sergi Darder Mallorca

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Mid usage low in model.

PROP ALERT

Leo Román Mallorca

Under 3.0 saves 56%

Low total spot reduces shots faced.

PROP ALERT

Vedat Muriqi Mallorca

Under 1.5 goals 58%

Multi-goal rare despite volume.

PROP ALERT

Sergi Darder Mallorca

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Consistent under projector.

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