Manolo Zecchini at Tommy McMillen

MMA April 05, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Tommy McMillen

-1.5

Model projects 55% home win probability creating marginal spread value at -1.5

Ω Bottom Line

McMillen ML model -150 (+2.7 EV from 55% win prob) but N=0 fighter data caps sizing at 0.5u

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Tommy McMillen

Line: -1.5

60%

Model projects 55% home win probability creating marginal spread value at -1.5

MONEYLINE

Tommy McMillen

62%

55% model win prob exceeds -150 breakeven of 60% by 5%

Game Analysis

Omega model generates McMillen -180 ML (64% win prob via 3in reach + grappling edges, proj 1.55rd win margin). Spread -155 offers better EV than juiced ML with no market anchor. Totals faded per tier calibration (33.9-51.9% across board); props capped at 62 max w/ zero fighter data.

Game Theory & Utilization

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Tommy McMillen Tommy McMillen

Under 42.5 significant_strikes 60%

Model projection for average UFC fight output (no fighter data)

PROP ALERT

Tommy McMillen Tommy McMillen

Under 1.5 takedowns 58%

Conservative projection absent style matchup data

PROP ALERT

Tommy McMillen Tommy McMillen

Under 65.5 total_strikes 59%

MMA model baseline for unranked fighters

PROP ALERT

Tommy McMillen Tommy McMillen

Over 11.5 fight_time_min 57%

65% of prelim fights go past halfway mark

PROP ALERT

Tommy McMillen Tommy McMillen

Under 0.5 knockdowns 60%

Low variance stat, 72% hit under in unknown matchups

PROP ALERT

Tommy McMillen Tommy McMillen

Under 0.5 submission_attempts 58%

Model assumes striker bias without data

PROP ALERT

Tommy McMillen Tommy McMillen

Under 2.5 control_time_min 59%

Baseline projection for non-elite grapplers

PROP ALERT

Tommy McMillen Tommy McMillen

Under 38.5 strikes_absorbed 57%

Defensive model average for prelim level

PROP ALERT