Marseille at Lorient

Ligue 1 April 18, 2026 03:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

57% Lean

SPREAD

Marseille

-0.5

Marseille's attack led by Greenwood (15 goals in 27 matches) vs Lorient's weaker defense

Ω Bottom Line

Marseille ML -130 (+2.6 EV): Greenwood 15G/27M exceeds Lorient D; our 58% > 56.5% breakeven

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Marseille

Line: -0.5

57%

Marseille's attack led by Greenwood (15 goals in 27 matches) vs Lorient's weaker defense

MONEYLINE

Marseille

60%

Our 58% prob exceeds -130 breakeven (56.5%) by 1.5%; Greenwood edge in low-scoring Ligue 1 spot

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Ligue 1 avg ~2.6 goals but defensive matchup with no pace data favors under bias

Game Analysis

Marseille's attack led by Greenwood (15G/27M, 0.56/game) projects 1.6 goals vs Lorient's weak output (Pagis 0.35/game). Model win prob 60% beats -130 implied 56.5% (+3.5% edge) despite data gaps. Totals lean under at 2.3 projected but cap confidence due to historical 48% WR.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Pablo Pagis Lorient

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Season avg 8 goals/23 matches (0.35 gpg); model projection 0.3 vs Marseille defense (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Pablo Pagis Lorient

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Low-volume finisher; projected 0.7 SOT in tough matchup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Arsène Kouassi Lorient

Under 0.5 assists 59%

5 assists/27 matches; low usage projected 0.1 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Arsène Kouassi Lorient

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Midfielder low SOT volume; projected 0.3 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Pablo Pagis Lorient

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

Home underdog spot limits chances (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Arsène Kouassi Lorient

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Primary creator, minimal goals (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mason Greenwood Marseille

Over 0.5 goals 60%

15 goals/27 matches; projected 0.65 vs Lorient D (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mason Greenwood Marseille

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

High usage attacker; matchup boost (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mason Greenwood Marseille

Under 0.5 assists 57%

6 assists/27; goal-focused role (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mason Greenwood Marseille

Under 2.0 shots_on_target 56%

Conservative projection in road favorite spot (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mason Greenwood Marseille

Under 1.5 goals 59%

Multi-goal rare even at avg (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Pablo Pagis Lorient

Under 1.5 goals 60%

Never hits 1.5+ consistently (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Arsène Kouassi Lorient

Under 1.5 assists 58%

Low ceiling vs Marseille (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mason Greenwood Marseille

Under 1.5 assists 55%

Secondary creator (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Pablo Pagis Lorient

Under 0.5 assists 56%

Forward minimal playmaking (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Arsène Kouassi Lorient

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Limited shots in underdog role (model-generated)

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