Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Denver Nuggets
-22.5
Memphis missing 5+ players including key rotation (GG Jackson, Cam Spencer out) vs Jokic-led Denver
Ω Bottom Line
Grizzlies crippled by injuries vs Jokic, sharp 21% over edge + RLM = Denver blowout + total smash (+3.2 EV)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Denver Nuggets
Line: -22.5
Memphis missing 5+ players including key rotation (GG Jackson, Cam Spencer out) vs Jokic-led Denver
TOTAL
over
Line: 244.5
Strong sharp signal 21.4% edge on over + RLM + Bovada +63% EV at +225
Game Analysis
OMEGA -3 Denver with 103-100 expected; MC 55% win/48% cover neutral but Jokic 27.9-10.9-12.9 triple-double projection dominates depleted Memphis (5 outs). ML -204 at model 67% breakeven marginal +EV 3.8%. Totals losing model-wide, pass under 203 despite low proj 202.8.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Nikola Jokic
Denver Nuggets
Over 28.5 points
65%
League-leading scorer, Memphis depleted frontcourt boosts usage
PROP ALERT
Nikola Jokic
Denver Nuggets
Over 11.0 rebounds
62%
Rebound leader vs injured Grizzlies bigs (Edey/Zach matchup but Memphis thin)
PROP ALERT
Nikola Jokic
Denver Nuggets
Over 13.0 assists
60%
Triple-double machine, Memphis injuries mean more Jokic passing lanes
PROP ALERT
Jamal Murray
Denver Nuggets
Over 24.5 points
58%
Primary scorer behind Jokic, weak Memphis backcourt
PROP ALERT
Aaron Gordon
Denver Nuggets
Over 15.5 points
57%
Consistent double-digit vs depleted Grizzlies
PROP ALERT
Ja Morant
Memphis Grizzlies
Over 26.5 points
60%
Usage spikes with Memphis injuries, volume shooter
PROP ALERT
Cedric Coward
Memphis Grizzlies
Over 13.5 points
58%
Team leader in scoring with multiple out
PROP ALERT
Scotty Pippen Jr.
Memphis Grizzlies
Over 6.5 assists
56%
Backup PG role expands with injuries
PROP ALERT
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Memphis Grizzlies
Over 14.0 points
57%
Wing scoring with thin roster
PROP ALERT
Cameron Johnson
Denver Nuggets
Over 2.5 three_pointers
58%
Shooter thrives vs weak Memphis perimeter D