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Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets

NBA April 09, 2026 01:00 AM ET
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Denver Nuggets
-22.5
Memphis missing 5+ players including key rotation (GG Jackson, Cam Spencer out) vs Jokic-led Denver
Ω Bottom Line
Grizzlies crippled by injuries vs Jokic, sharp 21% over edge + RLM = Denver blowout + total smash (+3.2 EV)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD
Denver Nuggets
Line: -22.5
60%
Memphis missing 5+ players including key rotation (GG Jackson, Cam Spencer out) vs Jokic-led Denver
TOTAL
over
Line: 244.5
64%
Strong sharp signal 21.4% edge on over + RLM + Bovada +63% EV at +225

Game Analysis

OMEGA -3 Denver with 103-100 expected; MC 55% win/48% cover neutral but Jokic 27.9-10.9-12.9 triple-double projection dominates depleted Memphis (5 outs). ML -204 at model 67% breakeven marginal +EV 3.8%. Totals losing model-wide, pass under 203 despite low proj 202.8.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT
Nikola Jokic Denver Nuggets
Over 28.5 points 65%
League-leading scorer, Memphis depleted frontcourt boosts usage
PROP ALERT
Nikola Jokic Denver Nuggets
Over 11.0 rebounds 62%
Rebound leader vs injured Grizzlies bigs (Edey/Zach matchup but Memphis thin)
PROP ALERT
Nikola Jokic Denver Nuggets
Over 13.0 assists 60%
Triple-double machine, Memphis injuries mean more Jokic passing lanes
PROP ALERT
Jamal Murray Denver Nuggets
Over 24.5 points 58%
Primary scorer behind Jokic, weak Memphis backcourt
PROP ALERT
Aaron Gordon Denver Nuggets
Over 15.5 points 57%
Consistent double-digit vs depleted Grizzlies
PROP ALERT
Christian Braun Denver Nuggets
Over 12.0 points 55%
Increased role with bench injuries
PROP ALERT
Ja Morant Memphis Grizzlies
Over 26.5 points 60%
Usage spikes with Memphis injuries, volume shooter
PROP ALERT
Cedric Coward Memphis Grizzlies
Over 13.5 points 58%
Team leader in scoring with multiple out
PROP ALERT
Zach Edey Memphis Grizzlies
Over 10.5 rebounds 59%
Rookie big sees more minutes vs Jokic
PROP ALERT
Scotty Pippen Jr. Memphis Grizzlies
Over 6.5 assists 56%
Backup PG role expands with injuries
PROP ALERT
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Memphis Grizzlies
Over 14.0 points 57%
Wing scoring with thin roster
PROP ALERT
Brandon Clarke Memphis Grizzlies
Over 7.5 rebounds 55%
Frontcourt minutes boost
PROP ALERT
Cameron Johnson Denver Nuggets
Over 2.5 three_pointers 58%
Shooter thrives vs weak Memphis perimeter D
PROP ALERT
Tim Hardaway Jr. Denver Nuggets
Over 13.0 points 56%
Bench scoring vs depleted Grizzlies
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