Metz at Le Havre AC

Ligue 1 April 26, 2026 03:15 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Le Havre AC

-0.5

Whales extreme on home win equivalent (-0.5 cover); Metz 3-6-21 collapse

Ω Bottom Line

Le Havre ML -165 +5.8 EV: extreme $873k whales + Metz 3-6-21 road hell

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Le Havre AC

Line: -0.5

62%

Whales extreme on home win equivalent (-0.5 cover); Metz 3-6-21 collapse

MONEYLINE

Le Havre AC

68%

Breakeven 62.3% exceeded by 5.7%; $873k extreme whales + DDN 3-1 vs Metz

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

58%

Combined poor form (Metz 3W, Le Havre mid-table unders bias in low-pace spots)

Game Analysis

Extreme whale action ($765k volume, 91% on home) provides sole Tier 2 signal in low-data spot, pushing our home win prob to 64% vs market 60% for +6.7 EV on -150 ML. No line movement or situational edges; Bayesian posterior flat at 60%. Totals leaned under on Ligue 1 norms but historically unprofitable (51.2% Lean WR).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Issa Soumaré Metz

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection: 6 goals/30 matches = 0.2 avg; low-usage vs home D

PROP ALERT

Issa Soumaré Metz

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Season trends low SOT for MF; poor Metz attack projection

PROP ALERT

Gauthier Hein Metz

Under 0.5 goals 59%

6G/25M avg 0.24; matchup vs Le Havre D suppresses

PROP ALERT

Gauthier Hein Metz

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Low volume forward in struggling offense

PROP ALERT

Habib Diallo Metz

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Minimal goals threat; model proj under baseline

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Fischer Metz

Under 3.5 saves 56%

88 season saves low avg; expected low shots faced

PROP ALERT

Jean-Philippe Gbamin Metz

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Midfielder low SOT; 1479 min no goal threat

PROP ALERT

Gautier Lloris Le Havre AC

Over 2.5 saves 58%

GK 1235 min high exposure vs Metz attack

PROP ALERT

Mory Diaw Le Havre AC

Under 3.0 saves 57%

68 saves low; backup proj limited action

PROP ALERT

Issa Soumaré Le Havre AC

Under 0.5 goals 60%

6G/30M = 0.2 avg; consistent under in projections

PROP ALERT

Gautier Lloris Le Havre AC

Over 3.0 saves 59%

Primary GK faces Metz volume

PROP ALERT

Mory Diaw Le Havre AC

Under 1.0 shots_on_goal 56%

Low offensive contrib from GK role

PROP ALERT

Issa Soumaré Le Havre AC

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

70 metric low volume; model under

PROP ALERT

Gauthier Hein Le Havre AC

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Mislisted but proj low; poor team scoring

PROP ALERT

Habib Diallo Le Havre AC

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

37 metric suggests limited role

PROP ALERT

Jean-Philippe Gbamin Le Havre AC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Midfield min eater, no shots threat

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Fischer Le Havre AC

Under 2.5 saves 56%

88 saves low avg; bench GK proj

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