Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins

MLB May 12, 2026 11:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Minnesota Twins

-1.5

Sharp edge 12.9% on home run line vs public + +49.5% EV vs Market Consensus fair value (33.2% fair home cover)

Ω Bottom Line

Twins -1.5 +49.5% EV sharp edge + extreme $1.2M whales home, Marlins -11% injury hit

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Minnesota Twins

Line: -1.5

65%

Sharp edge 12.9% on home run line vs public + +49.5% EV vs Market Consensus fair value (33.2% fair home cover)

MONEYLINE

Minnesota Twins

60%

calibrated 53.5% boosted +3 by sharp spread signal +5 by extreme whales despite ML sharp away moderate

TOTAL

under

Line: 9.0

57%

Market Consensus fair under 51.8% vs retail implied ~50%

Game Analysis

Omega ML implies just 36.9% Twins win prob but Bayesian posterior fuses to 48.5% (+11.6pp edge, +31 EV at +171). Extreme institutional whales ($1.17M vol, 72% conf) + Kalshi PM (51.5% Home) confirm vs slight Tier 1 away lean. MC under 77.7% at inflated 22.5 total but totals 48.7% WR caps conviction; net injuries favor Twins (+2.3%). Degraded data/VLOW agreement limits to leans.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Brooks Lee Minnesota Twins

Over 0.5 hits 58%

Model projection .276 BA projects 1.0 hits vs Marlins pitching (no pitcher data adj neutral)

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

Season 13 HR pace low vs projected Marlins SP, model under 0.3 HR

PROP ALERT

Taj Bradley Minnesota Twins

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

52 K season pace + 2.87 ERA projects over vs Marlins weak offense

PROP ALERT

Brooks Lee Minnesota Twins

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Model proj 1.6 TB from .276 BA + power (24 extra base?)

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Under 0.5 rbis 57%

Limited RBI opps projected in low-scoring model sim

PROP ALERT

Taj Bradley Minnesota Twins

Under 5.5 strikeouts 55%

Alt line conservative proj vs Marlins contact hitters

PROP ALERT

Brooks Lee Minnesota Twins

Under 1.5 hits 59%

Model caps at 1.0 hits in matchup

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Over 1.5 total_bases 58%

Power threat projects 1.7 TB despite injuries

PROP ALERT

Otto Lopez Miami Marlins

Over 1.0 hits 57%

Model proj .344 BA to 1.2 hits vs Twins (no SP data)

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

9 HR pace low, model under 0.2 vs Twins pitching

PROP ALERT

Max Meyer Miami Marlins

Over 4.5 strikeouts 58%

2.79 ERA pace projects 5 K vs Twins lineup

PROP ALERT

Otto Lopez Miami Marlins

Under 1.5 total_bases 56%

Hot BA but model caps TB at 1.4 on road

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Under 0.5 rbis 59%

35 RBI pace low opps projected

PROP ALERT

Max Meyer Miami Marlins

Under 5.5 strikeouts 55%

Conservative alt proj vs Twins contact

PROP ALERT

Otto Lopez Miami Marlins

Over 0.5 hits 60%

High contact .344 BA clears easy

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Under 1.5 total_bases 57%

Power limited in model matchup

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail