Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins

MLB May 13, 2026 11:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Minnesota Twins

1.5

+48.3% EV on home +1.5 per Market Consensus de-vig vs retail; sharp 12.3% edge home spread

Ω Bottom Line

Twins +1.5 +48% EV sharp edge + extreme $1.4M whales home; 65% model over 8.5 vs tiny market total

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Minnesota Twins

Line: 1.5

62%

+48.3% EV on home +1.5 per Market Consensus de-vig vs retail; sharp 12.3% edge home spread

MONEYLINE

Minnesota Twins

55%

calibrated 51.1% home win vs market 49% (+2.1pp); extreme whale volume $1.4M (67 wallets, 68% conf)

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.5

60%

calibrated 65.2% over 8.5 vs market 50% (+15.2pp); OMEGA total, MC proj 19.7

Game Analysis

Sharp 12.9% spread edge + extreme $1M whale volume on Twins home despite PM divergence to Marlins; net injury edge +2.3% home with low-ERA arms Meyer/Bradley cap total. Degraded data caps conf at lean tier, +49.5% EV home spread stands out vs Pinnacle fair 33.2% cover. ML neutral at 52.8% posterior, pass juiced fave.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Brooks Lee Minnesota Twins

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Season .270 AVG projects 1.1 hits in favorable matchup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

13 HR pace projects 1.8 TB with high variance upside (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Ryan Jeffers Minnesota Twins

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

25 RBI leader sees cleanup usage projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Taj Bradley Minnesota Twins

Over 5.5 strikeouts 59%

52 K / 2.87 ERA projects K-prone matchup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Bailey Ober Minnesota Twins

Over 4.5 strikeouts 55%

Recent form + matchup projects over avg (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Brooks Lee Minnesota Twins

Under 1.5 total_bases 56%

Contact hitter regresses vs strong arms (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Over 0.5 hits 60%

Leadoff projection in high-total spot (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Ryan Jeffers Minnesota Twins

Over 0.5 hits 57%

Consistent contact vs Marlins staff (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Otto Lopez Miami Marlins

Over 1.5 hits 60%

.337 AVG projects multi-hit game (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Over 0.5 rbis 58%

35 RBI pace in middle order (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Max Meyer Miami Marlins

Over 5.5 strikeouts 59%

2.79 ERA whiff machine vs Twins (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Under 0.5 home_runs 57%

9 HR but park suppresses power (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Otto Lopez Miami Marlins

Over 2.0 total_bases 56%

Hot bat projects extra bases (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Max Meyer Miami Marlins

Over 4.5 strikeouts 55%

Volume projection vs contact lineup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Over 0.5 hits 58%

Power/contact hybrid projects hit (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Otto Lopez Miami Marlins

Under 0.5 rbis 56%

Leadoff role limits RBI opps (model-generated)

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