Miami Marlins at New York Mets
Ω
OMEGA PICK
56%
Lean
SPREAD
Miami Marlins
2.2
calibrated shows away cover at 56.3% vs market 50%, giving +6.3pp edge at -110. OMEGA line is pick'em, implying market overvalues home by 2.2 runs.
Ω Bottom Line
Over 7.0 at -110: OMEGA projects 20.2 total runs, Monte Carlo sims agree — a staggering +24.5 EV per $100 on a market that's asleep at the wheel.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Miami Marlins
Line: 2.2
calibrated shows away cover at 56.3% vs market 50%, giving +6.3pp edge at -110. OMEGA line is pick'em, implying market overvalues home by 2.2 runs.
TOTAL
over
Line: 7.0
calibrated gives 65.2% over at 7.0, with +15.2pp edge. simulation projects 10.3-9.9 score (20.2 total), strongly supporting over. The market total is drastically low.
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion gives the Mets a thin +2.0pp edge over the market, but with VERY_LOW model agreement and zero pitcher data, this is a low-conviction play. The real signal is the under: Monte Carlo projects 70.7% under 22.5 runs, and both teams are missing key bats (Soto, Vientos, Caissie). Whale volume is extreme on the Mets ($339K), but prediction markets are slightly below the book price — a mild contrarian flag. Data quality is degraded (59%), so all confidence is reduced by 4 points. Small units only.