Michigan Wolverines at Arizona Wildcats
Ω
OMEGA PICK
64%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Michigan Wolverines
1.5
Omega spread projects 0.0 vs market ARIZ -1.5 (1.5pt edge to Michigan); sharp money +2.3% ML divergence confirms away side
Ω Bottom Line
Michigan +1.5 (omega 1.5pt edge) + sharp 2.3% ML RLM; total 157.5 vs model 192 (34pt blowout)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Michigan Wolverines
Line: 1.5
Omega spread projects 0.0 vs market ARIZ -1.5 (1.5pt edge to Michigan); sharp money +2.3% ML divergence confirms away side
MONEYLINE
Michigan Wolverines
Sharp RLM on ML (2.3% edge to away) despite public on Arizona; omega ML -124 implies 55.4% Michigan but market overprices at -108
TOTAL
over
Line: 157.5
Omega total 192.0 vs market 157.5 (34.5pt massive discrepancy); expected score 96-96 projects 192 combined
Game Analysis
Omega Poisson/ELO mashup sees dead even 96-96 (spread 0.0, total 192) vs market -1.5/157.5 — huge total edge as both 35-win elites in dome. Sharp weakly on Michigan but only 1% div; Arizona 11-0 away covers +1.5 value. Model 3-1 vs Michigan, 2-4 vs Arizona but N small.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Brayden Burries
Arizona Wildcats
Over 16.0 points
62%
Team leader avg matches projection; neutral site usage steady (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Jaden Bradley
Arizona Wildcats
Over 4.5 assists
60%
Season avg projects slight over in high-pace neutral matchup (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Tobe Awaka
Arizona Wildcats
Over 9.0 rebounds
61%
Rebounding leader projects to line in even matchup (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Motiejus Krivas
Arizona Wildcats
Under 12.5 points
59%
Secondary scorer faces Michigan frontcourt; model adjusts down (projection)
PROP ALERT
Bryce James
Arizona Wildcats
Over 8.5 points
58%
Role player projects over in playoff spot (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Yaxel Lendeborg
Michigan Wolverines
Over 15.0 points
63%
Team scoring leader; projects over vs Arizona frontcourt (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Elliot Cadeau
Michigan Wolverines
Under 5.5 assists
60%
High usage but neutral site defense tightens (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Morez Johnson Jr.
Michigan Wolverines
Over 7.5 rebounds
62%
Rebounder projects over in projected high-total game (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Roddy Gayle Jr.
Michigan Wolverines
Over 10.0 points
59%
Consistent scorer in rotation (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Aday Mara
Michigan Wolverines
Under 6.5 rebounds
57%
Big man faces Awaka/Lendeborg battle (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Jaden Bradley
Arizona Wildcats
Over 9.0 points
58%
Guard projects over in fast-paced matchup (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Trey McKenney
Michigan Wolverines
Under 7.5 points
56%
Bench role limits upside vs deep Arizona (model projection)