Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians

MLB May 09, 2026 10:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

56% Lean

SPREAD

Minnesota Twins

2.2

Posterior 56.3% Twins cover +2.2 vs market 50% (+6.3pp edge); OMEGA spread (0.0) vs market -2.2 home

Ω Bottom Line

Twins +2.2 (56% cover edge, Omega 0.0 vs mkt -2.2) + O7.5 (+15pp, MC 20 runs projected)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Minnesota Twins

Line: 2.2

56%

Posterior 56.3% Twins cover +2.2 vs market 50% (+6.3pp edge); OMEGA spread (0.0) vs market -2.2 home

TOTAL

over

Line: 7.5

60%

Posterior 65.2% over 7.5 vs market 50% (+15.2pp edge); MC projects 20 runs (9.9-10.1)

Game Analysis

Omega even spread (0.0) vs market Guardians -2.2 creates +6.3pp posterior edge on Twins cover (56.3%); MC sims 9.9-10.1 total crushes 7.5 line (+15pp over edge) despite no pitchers. Net injury edge to home (+2.3%) offset by early CLV value (+2 pts) and PM divergence (51.5% home). Whales home but sharps split, VERY_LOW model agreement caps conviction.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jose Ramirez Cleveland Guardians

Over 1.0 hits 60%

model projection .306 BA leader, favorable matchup projection (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians

Over 1.5 total_bases 58%

Season .306 AVG leader, high usage projection (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Gavin Williams Cleveland Guardians

Over 5.5 strikeouts 59%

60 K leader, Twins weak vs RHP projection (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Jose Ramirez Cleveland Guardians

Under 0.5 home_runs 57%

6 HR leader but regression vs Twins staff (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Gavin Williams Cleveland Guardians

Under 5.5 strikeouts 55%

Twins low K% projection (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

23 RBI pace, cleanup projection (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Parker Messick Cleveland Guardians

Over 4.5 strikeouts 58%

2.40 ERA leader, Twins contact hitters (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Jose Ramirez Cleveland Guardians

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

Power leader vs Twins road splits (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Over 0.5 home_runs 59%

11 HR leader, Guardians park favors power (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Brooks Lee Minnesota Twins

Over 0.5 hits 57%

.270 AVG leader, leadoff projection (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Taj Bradley Minnesota Twins

Over 5.0 strikeouts 58%

2.87 ERA, Guardians high K% (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Under 1.5 total_bases 56%

Injury cascade risk with Day-To-Day (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Brooks Lee Minnesota Twins

Over 1.0 total_bases 55%

23 ? leader, solid vs Guardians (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Taj Bradley Minnesota Twins

Under 5.0 strikeouts 57%

Guardians contact lineup (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Over 0.5 hits 60%

High usage despite injuries (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Brooks Lee Minnesota Twins

Under 0.5 rbis 55%

Lower lineup spot projection (omega_model)

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