Minnesota Twins at New York Mets

MLB April 23, 2026 11:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

New York Mets

1.5

+60% EV on Mets +1.5 per +EV analysis vs Market Consensus fair value (away 37.2%)

Ω Bottom Line

Twins ML -115 (omega -286, +5.8 EV) + Mets +1.5 (+60% EV sharp div); model over 7.5 blowout

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

New York Mets

Line: 1.5

62%

+60% EV on Mets +1.5 per +EV analysis vs Market Consensus fair value (away 37.2%)

MONEYLINE

Minnesota Twins

64%

Omega ML Twins -286 (74% prob) vs market -115 (53.5%), calibrated edge favoring away

TOTAL

over

Line: 7.5

58%

model projected 20.3 total (under 76.3% at 24.0) vs market 7.5, OMEGA total edge 16.5

Game Analysis

Bayesian fuses to 59.5% Twins win (posterior edge 5.4%) vs -118 implied 54.1% (+4.3EV), MC 49% away boosted by sharp 18.6% spread away signal. Mets +1.5 value at 62.7% fair cover prob vs market (EV 8.7 despite omega pick'em). Over 7.5 crushes with 20.4 projected total but cap conf totals weak 48.7% WR N=610.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Over 0.5 hits 58%

Model projection 1.0 hits vs soft Mets matchup, high-usage OF (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Season leader projection adjusted for pace, Buxton power vs no pitcher data (model)

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

HR projection 0.2 in neutral park, variance high (model)

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

Usage boost with injuries, projected 0.8 RBI (model)

PROP ALERT

Carlos Correa Minnesota Twins

Over 1.0 hits 59%

Consistent hitter projection 1.2 vs Mets staff (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Ryan Jeffers Minnesota Twins

Over 1.0 total_bases 56%

Catcher power projection 1.4 in high total spot (model)

PROP ALERT

Jose Miranda Minnesota Twins

Over 0.5 hits 60%

Contact hitter avg 1.0 projected (model)

PROP ALERT

Trevor Larnach Minnesota Twins

Under 1.5 total_bases 55%

Projection 1.2 vs unknown arms (model)

PROP ALERT

Francisco Lindor New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 57%

Leadoff projection 1.1 despite DTD, high usage (model)

PROP ALERT

Francisco Alvarez New York Mets

Over 1.0 total_bases 58%

Team leader .254 avg, projected 1.3 TB (model)

PROP ALERT

Francisco Lindor New York Mets

Under 0.5 home_runs 56%

Power projection 0.3 HR, injury risk (model)

PROP ALERT

Francisco Alvarez New York Mets

Over 0.5 rbis 59%

4 HR leader projects 0.9 RBI (model)

PROP ALERT

Pete Alonso New York Mets

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

Power bat projection 2.0 in hitter-friendly sim (model)

PROP ALERT

Brandon Nimmo New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 55%

OF projection 1.0 hits (model)

PROP ALERT

Starling Marte New York Mets

Under 0.5 steals 57%

Speed projection 0.3 but age/injury (model)

PROP ALERT

Jeff McNeil New York Mets

Under 1.0 hits 56%

Projection 0.9 vs Twins arms (model)

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