Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche

NHL May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Minnesota Wild

1.5

Cross-market contradiction (ML home but spread away value) + calibrated ML edge implies 52% MIN cover vs 43% implied

Ω Bottom Line

MIN +1.5 +124 value from market contradiction + COL close-win prob (25% 1-goal wins at 67% implied); whales/injuries boost COL ML marginal EV

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Minnesota Wild

Line: 1.5

65%

Cross-market contradiction (ML home but spread away value) + calibrated ML edge implies 52% MIN cover vs 43% implied

MONEYLINE

Colorado Avalanche

67%

Posterior 67.2% boosted +0.8pp by extreme whales +12.6% injury edge vs MIN outs

TOTAL

under

Line: 6.5

57%

Playoff under bias (historical ~5.8 avg goals) + MIN D injuries (Brodin out) suppress scoring

Game Analysis

Market overreacts to Avs with -2597 ML (96% implied) but omega/MC project even 7-7 game and 45% home win; +57 EV Wild ML despite whale steam home. Bayesian edge +7.4pp Avs -2.5 cover with injury net +12% home. MC 66% under 15.5 in low-agreement regime.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 3.5 shots_on_goal 65%

High-volume shooter (3.8/g last10) vs MIN depleted D (Brodin out boosts shots)

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.5 points 62%

Series dominator (1.6 pts/g) with MIN Eriksson Ek out increasing chances

PROP ALERT

Mikko Rantanen Colorado Avalanche

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 60%

Consistent shooter (2.7/g) exploits MIN injury cascade

PROP ALERT

Cale Makar Colorado Avalanche

Over 0.5 points 60%

PP threat (0.9/g) vs weakened MIN blue line

PROP ALERT

Cale Makar Colorado Avalanche

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Active from blue (2.6/g last10 playoffs)

PROP ALERT

Alexandar Georgiev Colorado Avalanche

Over 24.5 saves 62%

MIN generates 28 SOG/g; low total expects volume

PROP ALERT

Artturi Lehkonen Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.5 shots_on_goal 57%

DT DTD but avg 1.7 vs soft MIN matchup

PROP ALERT

Valeri Nichushkin Colorado Avalanche

Over 0.5 goals 55%

Net-front presence up vs MIN injuries

PROP ALERT

Kirill Kaprizov Minnesota Wild

Over 3.5 shots_on_goal 64%

Usage spike (Eriksson Ek out = more shots) despite team D woes

PROP ALERT

Kirill Kaprizov Minnesota Wild

Under 1.5 points 60%

COL shutdown D limits; recent 1.3/g in series

PROP ALERT

Matt Boldy Minnesota Wild

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 59%

2nd line volume up with Ek out

PROP ALERT

Filip Gustavsson Minnesota Wild

Over 28.5 saves 63%

COL high SOG (32/g) forces 29+ saves expected

PROP ALERT

Brock Faber Minnesota Wild

Over 1.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Top D usage spikes (Brodin out)

PROP ALERT

Mats Zuccarello Minnesota Wild

Over 0.5 assists 58%

Playmaker feeds Kaprizov/Boldy elevated usage

PROP ALERT

Marco Rossi Minnesota Wild

Under 0.5 points 56%

Limited role vs COL top PK

PROP ALERT

Ryan Hartman Minnesota Wild

Under 1.5 shots_on_goal 55%

Grinder suppressed in playoffs by COL forecheck

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