Nashville SC at Orlando City SC
Ω
OMEGA PICK
63%
Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Orlando City SC
None
Whale extreme volume ($1.8M, 85% home) + calibrated +2.4% edge over market. Home underdog at +210 with positive EV.
Ω Bottom Line
Whales pile $1.8M on Orlando City +210; Bayesian edge +2.4% and total over 2.5 with +14.9pp edge — but data quality concerns limit confidence.
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
Orlando City SC
Whale extreme volume ($1.8M, 85% home) + calibrated +2.4% edge over market. Home underdog at +210 with positive EV.
TOTAL
over
Line: 2.5
calibrated shows 64.9% posterior for over 2.5 with +14.9pp edge. Omega model projects 7.5 total. High whale volume on home side suggests game could be open.
Game Analysis
Orlando City at home as a +210 underdog draws extreme whale volume ($1.8M, 85% confidence) from 69 profitable wallets, signaling sharp money. Bayesian fusion gives a +2.4% edge over the market, yielding positive EV. The total market of 2.5 is suspiciously low; our models project a much higher scoring game (7.5 total), creating a massive over edge (+14.9pp). Data quality is degraded (55% of signals available), so confidence is capped at 65. The whale signal is the strongest confirmation, but the missing sharp/public divergence and +EV analysis leave some uncertainty. The spread at -140 is negative EV and should be avoided.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Martín Ojeda
Orlando City SC
Over 0.5 goals
60%
Ojeda averages 0.73 goals per match (11 in 15). At home against a Nashville defense that conceded heavily in model projections, he has a high chance to score. No market line available; model projection based on season average.
PROP ALERT
Sam Surridge
Nashville SC
Over 0.5 goals
61%
Surridge averages 1.0 goals per match (10 in 10). Nashville's away form is strong (12-3-1). He is likely to score in a high-scoring game. Model projection only.
PROP ALERT
Iván Angulo
Orlando City SC
Over 0.5 assists
55%
Angulo averages 0.31 assists per match (5 in 16). In a potentially high-scoring game, he could get an assist, but the average is below 0.5. Thin edge.