New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks

NBA April 30, 2026 11:00 PM ET FINAL 140 - 89

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

New York Knicks

-1.5

model 60.4% Knicks cover even at -2.5 (stronger at -1.5); omega Knicks -2.5 vs market -1.5

Ω Bottom Line

Knicks -1.5: Hawks -13.8% injury crater + MC 60% cover + extreme whales, omega edge vs market, +6.8 EV

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

New York Knicks

Line: -1.5

62%

model 60.4% Knicks cover even at -2.5 (stronger at -1.5); omega Knicks -2.5 vs market -1.5

TOTAL

under

Line: 213.5

58%

Omega 179 / NegBin 181.3 / Decomp 181.3 vs market 213.5 (+34.5 better odds for under)

Game Analysis

Hawks -13.8% injury hit (Gilbert/Landale out) tilts edge to Knicks vs 1.8 spread, backed by 3.6% sharp divergence + cross-market away. Total over has massive 18.8% sharp edge/RLM but capped by historical 48.7% total WR. Whales extreme home ($1.2M) contradict but Pinnacle priority; data gaps limit to leans.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jalen Johnson Atlanta Hawks

Over 22.0 points 62%

Team leader in pts/reb/ast; usage boost with Landale/Gilbert OUT (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Jalen Johnson Atlanta Hawks

Over 8.0 rebounds 60%

Rebounding leader; frontcourt injuries increase minutes (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Jalen Johnson Atlanta Hawks

Under 10.0 assists 58%

High avg but Knicks D limits playmaking (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Kuminga Atlanta Hawks

Over 17.5 points 59%

High usage forward steps up with injuries (model proj)

PROP ALERT

CJ McCollum Atlanta Hawks

Over 19.5 points 61%

Scoring guard volume in low-pace spot (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Dyson Daniels Atlanta Hawks

Over 4.0 assists 57%

Secondary playmaker (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Buddy Hield Atlanta Hawks

Over 3.0 three_pointers 55%

Volume shooter (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Atlanta Hawks

Under 12.5 points 56%

Limited role vs Knicks wings (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Jalen Brunson New York Knicks

Over 25.5 points 65%

Star PG leader, high usage vs injured Hawks (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Jalen Brunson New York Knicks

Over 6.5 assists 63%

Primary facilitator (model proj)

PROP ALERT

OG Anunoby New York Knicks

Over 15.0 points 60%

Wing scorer exploits Hawks injuries (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Mikal Bridges New York Knicks

Over 17.5 points 59%

Consistent scorer (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Josh Hart New York Knicks

Over 7.5 rebounds 58%

Hustle rebounder vs thin Hawks frontcourt (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Mitchell Robinson New York Knicks

Over 9.5 rebounds 61%

Center dominates boards with Hawks bigs OUT (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Jordan Clarkson New York Knicks

Under 14.0 points 57%

Bench role limited (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Josh Hart New York Knicks

Over 4.0 assists 55%

Secondary ballhandler (model proj)

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail