New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
TOTAL
OVER
8.5
calibrated projects 65.2% over probability vs market 50.0%, yielding +15.2pp edge; strong scoring model signal.
Ω Bottom Line
Bayesian fusion sees 65.2% over probability on 8.5 total — +15.2pp edge despite sharp money siding with Guardians on ML. Lean over 8.5.
All OMEGA Picks
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.5
calibrated projects 65.2% over probability vs market 50.0%, yielding +15.2pp edge; strong scoring model signal.
Game Analysis
Bayesian posterior gives Mets 53% win probability, but that's fully priced into our model-implied line (-113). The real value is on Guardians +1.5: a 53% favorite wins by exactly one run roughly 20% of the time, so the +1.5 side clears 60% at -110. Juan Soto's absence plus CLE's home edge and whale-side volume ($75K strong tier) support this lean. Under 8.5 is a modest play given the offensive void and no pitcher data. Overall, avoid the juiced moneyline.