New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Chicago White Sox
1.5
calibrated gives home cover 53.9% vs market 50.0%, a +3.9pp edge. Despite sharp money favoring Yankees, the model sees value on the home run line.
Ω Bottom Line
Over 7.5: Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge, even with degraded data — 65.2% win probability yields +$24.47 EV per $100.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Chicago White Sox
Line: 1.5
calibrated gives home cover 53.9% vs market 50.0%, a +3.9pp edge. Despite sharp money favoring Yankees, the model sees value on the home run line.
TOTAL
over
Line: 7.5
calibrated gives over 65.2% vs market 50.0%, a +15.2pp edge. Even with data quality degradation, the edge is substantial.
Game Analysis
The market total of 8.0 is drastically mispriced relative to the OMEGA model projection of 22.5 and the Bayesian fusion posterior of 65.2% for the OVER. Sharp money strongly favors the Yankees on the spread (19.3% divergence, strong signal), and whale signals confirm with 80% confidence and $286K volume. The +EV analysis shows the spread away at Bovada offers +46.5% EV. However, data quality is degraded (68%), and the CLV timing signal indicates we may be late to the market on the spread. The OVER is the strongest play given the massive edge, but totals are historically the weakest market (48.7% WR), so confidence is capped at SHARP_LEAN. The moneyline is a pass due to the -140 juice requiring 58.3% breakeven against a 53.4% posterior.