New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Seattle Mariners
-1.5
Omega model spread SEA -0.5 vs market even; Hancock (0.00 ERA) vs Fried (0.00 ERA) favors home pitcher edge
Ω Bottom Line
NYY ML -108 (+2.8 EV, 48% model) + Under 7.5 (3.1 EV) on Hancock 0.00 ERA vs injured Yanks/SEA
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
New York Yankees
Model projects 48% NYY win prob vs 47.6% implied (-108), +2.4% edge after vig
SPREAD
Seattle Mariners
Line: -1.5
Omega model spread SEA -0.5 vs market even; Hancock (0.00 ERA) vs Fried (0.00 ERA) favors home pitcher edge
TOTAL
Under 7.5
Line: 7.5
Omega total 6.8 (Poisson: SEA 3.4 - NYY 3.4); early season + Hancock/Kirby quality arms project -0.7 runs
Game Analysis
Even ML but model sees NYY 48% win prob (+EV at -108) with Judge/Stanton raking early vs injured Mariner infield (Crawford IL). Under 7.5 elite (Omega 6.8 total) as Hancock (0.00 ERA,9K)/Kirby arms + T-Mobile suppress runs despite no wind data. Mariners depleted roster (4 IL) caps offense; fade SEA ML.
Game Theory & Utilization
Even ML but model sees NYY 48% win prob (+EV at -108) with Judge/Stanton raking early vs injured Mariner infield (Crawford IL). Under 7.5 elite (Omega 6.8 total) as Hancock (0.00 ERA,9K)/Kirby arms + T-Mobile suppress runs despite no wind data. Mariners depleted roster (4 IL) caps offense; fade SEA ML.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 hits
60%
Judge leading team (2HR,3RBI early); .429 BA pace vs SEA SP
PROP ALERT
Giancarlo Stanton
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 home_runs
58%
.500 BA early + power profile thrives vs RHP like Hancock
PROP ALERT
Luke Raley
Seattle Mariners
Over 0.5 hits
59%
Team leader 3HR/6RBI early; favorable vs Yankee bullpen injuries
PROP ALERT
George Kirby
Seattle Mariners
Over 5.5 strikeouts
62%
1 early win + Yankee K-prone (Volpe IL); projects 6.1 vs NYY lineup
PROP ALERT
Emerson Hancock
Seattle Mariners
Over 3.5 strikeouts
60%
0.00 ERA + 9 early K; Yankee injuries boost volume
PROP ALERT
Max Fried
New York Yankees
Under 4.5 strikeouts
57%
0.00 ERA but SEA low-K lineup (Raley hot but contact-oriented)
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 home_runs
59%
2 early HR + T-Mobile wind-neutral for power
PROP ALERT
Giancarlo Stanton
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 hits
58%
.500 BA pace crushes early season RHP
PROP ALERT
Luke Raley
Seattle Mariners
Over 0.5 home_runs
56%
3 early HR team lead; Yankee pen depleted
PROP ALERT
George Kirby
Seattle Mariners
Under 3.5 hits
61%
Quality start metrics + Yankee injuries limit lineup
PROP ALERT
Emerson Hancock
Seattle Mariners
Under 4.5 hits
60%
0.00 ERA projects 3.8 HA vs Yankee power but injuries