Nottingham Forest at Chelsea
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Chelsea
-0.5
calibrated aligns with market at 58.3% home win probability equivalent for -0.5 cover
Ω Bottom Line
Chelsea -140 ML at 0 EV (58.3% posterior = breakeven), pass amid no sharp signals or data edges
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion posterior dead-even with market at 60% Chelsea ML/home -0.5, zero edge after vig. No situational flags, injuries, or sharp signals; Kalshi 58.5% home confirms efficiency. Poor data (27%) caps conviction, totals weak model-wide.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
João Pedro
Chelsea
Over 0.5 goals
58%
Season avg 14 goals in 32 matches (0.44); projected higher usage home vs Forest defense (model projection)
PROP ALERT
João Pedro
Chelsea
Under 0.5 assists
56%
Season 5 assists in 32 (0.16 avg); low creator volume projected (model projection)
PROP ALERT
João Pedro
Chelsea
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
66 SOT in 32 matches (~2.1 avg); high volume attacker (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Robert Sánchez
Chelsea
Over 2.5 saves
55%
90 saves season avg ~2.8; Forest shots create volume (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Trevoh Chalobah
Chelsea
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
54%
Defender low shot volume projected vs Forest (model projection)
PROP ALERT
João Pedro
Chelsea
Over 0.5 assists
52%
Home boost for secondary creator role (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Robert Sánchez
Chelsea
Under 3.0 saves
53%
Chelsea clean sheet potential vs poor Forest attack (model projection)
PROP ALERT
João Pedro
Chelsea
Under 2.0 shots_on_target
55%
Matchup adjustment for Forest defense (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Morgan Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest
Under 0.5 goals
58%
13 goals in 34 (0.38 avg); tough Chelsea road spot (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Igor Jesus
Nottingham Forest
Under 0.5 assists
57%
4 assists in 33 (0.12 avg); low volume away (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Morgan Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
56%
75 SOT in 34 (~2.2 total shots); Chelsea suppresses (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Matz Sels
Nottingham Forest
Over 3.5 saves
55%
78 saves season; Chelsea home attack pressures GK (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Elliot Anderson
Nottingham Forest
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
54%
Midfielder low shot projection away (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Morgan Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest
Under 0.5 assists
53%
Limited creation vs Chelsea (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Matz Sels
Nottingham Forest
Under 4.0 saves
52%
Chelsea efficiency limits shots (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Igor Jesus
Nottingham Forest
Under 0.5 goals
55%
Minimal goal threat projected (model projection)