Orlando City SC at San Jose Earthquakes
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Orlando City SC
1.5
calibrated spread posterior 56.6% vs market 50.0% — +6.6pp edge on AWAY +1.5
Ω Bottom Line
Over 3.5 total goals: OMEGA projects 7.5, market says 3.5 — a 4-goal mispricing with +27.4% EV. Take it before the line moves.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Orlando City SC
Line: 1.5
calibrated spread posterior 56.6% vs market 50.0% — +6.6pp edge on AWAY +1.5
MONEYLINE
Orlando City SC
simulation win prob 40.5% vs market implied 25.6% — +14.9pp edge on AWAY ML
TOTAL
over
Line: 3.5
OMEGA total vs market 3.5 — 4.0-point discrepancy is extreme; simulation projects 6.7 combined goals
Game Analysis
The market is massively overpricing San Jose's home record (-200 ML, -1.5 spread) while OMEGA and Monte Carlo see this as a pick'em with a projected 3.4-3.3 scoreline. The total discrepancy is the biggest edge: OMEGA says 7.5, market says 3.5 — that's a 4-goal gap. Dixon-Coles projects 12.8 expected goals, which is absurdly high but consistent with the model's read. Orlando +1.5 at -170 offers +13.2% EV, and the over 3.5 at -110 offers +27.4% EV. Whale volume is heavy on San Jose (83%, $44K), which is likely public money — the sharp play is fading that and taking the underdog plus the over. Take the over 3.5 as the primary play before the line moves.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Over 0.5 goals
60%
Judd leads San Jose with 11 goals in 15 matches (0.73 G/90). Against Orlando's defense (no injuries, but conceded 6.4 expected goals per Dixon-Coles), he's the primary scoring threat. Model projection: 0.7 goals — slight edge over 0.5 line.
PROP ALERT
Martín Ojeda
Orlando City SC
Over 0.5 goals
60%
Ojeda has 11 goals in 15 matches (0.73 G/90) — Orlando's top scorer. San Jose's defense is solid at home but Dixon-Coles projects 6.4 goals conceded. Model projection: 0.7 goals — slight edge over 0.5 line.
PROP ALERT
Iván Angulo
Orlando City SC
Over 0.5 assists
58%
Angulo has 5 assists in 15 matches (0.33 A/90). In a high-scoring projected game (6.7 goals), assist opportunities increase. Model projection: 0.4 assists — marginal edge over 0.5 line.