Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning OMEGA Picks — March 28, 2026

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

Tampa Bay Lightning

68%

Ottawa missing Chabot/Sanderson/Gilbert/Thomson/Jensen (top-5 D core out) = -15% defensive output vs TB attack

SPREAD

Tampa Bay Lightning

Line: -1.5

65%

Model Poisson projects TB 3.9-2.8 win (spread value); Sens D injuries force over-reliance on depleted bottom pair

TOTAL

Over 6.5

66%

Combined D injuries boost pace + shots; model totals 6.7 expected goals (Poisson lambda 3.45/team)

Game Analysis

Ottawa's defense is gutted (Chabot/Sanderson/Gilbert/Thomson out = 4/6 top D), model drops their exp goals to 2.4 vs TB's 3.6 home. Kucherov feasts on weak pairings (1.3 pts/gm home avg). Tampa wins 62% sims despite Hedman out, low total from structured play.

Game Theory & Utilization

Ottawa's defense is gutted (Chabot/Sanderson/Gilbert/Thomson out = 4/6 top D), model drops their exp goals to 2.4 vs TB's 3.6 home. Kucherov feasts on weak pairings (1.3 pts/gm home avg). Tampa wins 62% sims despite Hedman out, low total from structured play.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Nikita Kucherov Tampa Bay Lightning

Over 1.5 points 60%

League-leading 121P pace + Ottawa missing top-4 D = usage surge vs weak matchup

PROP ALERT

Nikita Kucherov Tampa Bay Lightning

Over 0.5 goals 58%

40 goals this season; Sens depleted D ranks bottom-5 vs wingers

PROP ALERT

Tim Stutzle Ottawa Senators

Over 1.0 points 59%

32G/43A/75P on high-usage line; TB missing Hedman opens top-unit matchup

PROP ALERT

Tim Stutzle Ottawa Senators

Over 0.5 assists 57%

43A pace thrives in transition; TB secondary D vulnerable without Hedman

PROP ALERT

Brayden Point Tampa Bay Lightning

Over 1.0 points 56%

High-event center (est 0.95 pts/gm); Sens D injuries = more Grade-A chances

PROP ALERT

Brady Tkachuk Ottawa Senators

Under 0.5 goals 55%

Power forward suppressed vs TB depth (est 0.45/gm); TB goalie edge post-Hedman adjustment