Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
Ω
OMEGA PICK
68%
Strong
SPREAD
Philadelphia 76ers
-2.5
Rozier OUT (-15% MIA offense) + PHI stars Maxey/Embiid healthy = 62% cover prob
Ω Bottom Line
PHI -135 ML +4.8 EV: Rozier OUT = -12pts MIA, model 62% PHI win prob (75% DDN NBA N=56)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Philadelphia 76ers
Line: -2.5
Rozier OUT (-15% MIA offense) + PHI stars Maxey/Embiid healthy = 62% cover prob
MONEYLINE
Philadelphia 76ers
Model prob 62% vs implied 57.4%; Miami -Rozier = -12pts offense
TOTAL
Miami Heat/Philadelphia 76ers Over
Line: 246.5
Pace projection 101.2 + Embiid/Maxey usage = 249.8 expected total
Game Analysis
Rozier OUT craters MIA offense (-15% proj) while PHI rolls with Maxey 28.9 + Embiid healthy; model sees PHI 62% win prob vs 57% implied, +4.8 EV ML. Total pushes 249.8 on pace 101 + star usage. Props heavy Maxey/Powell overs on volume spikes.
Game Theory & Utilization
Rozier OUT craters MIA offense (-15% proj) while PHI rolls with Maxey 28.9 + Embiid healthy; model sees PHI 62% win prob vs 57% implied, +4.8 EV ML. Total pushes 249.8 on pace 101 + star usage. Props heavy Maxey/Powell overs on volume spikes.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Tyrese Maxey
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 29.0 points
65%
Usage spikes +20% w/Rozier out; elite vs MIA perimeter D
PROP ALERT
Joel Embiid
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 28.5 points
64%
Model proj 29.2; dominates MIA interior w/o Rozier spacing
PROP ALERT
Andre Drummond
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 8.5 rebounds
62%
Broome out = +1.2 reb; feasts on Goldin matchup
PROP ALERT
Paul George
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 21.5 points
60%
Road split +2pts; Herro matchup favorable
PROP ALERT
Tyrese Maxey
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 6.5 assists
63%
Playmaking up +15% w/injuries; MIA weak PG D
PROP ALERT
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 14.0 points
58%
Minutes boost w/Broome out; spot-up vs Fontecchio
PROP ALERT
Norman Powell
Miami Heat
Over 22.5 points
61%
DTD but if plays, usage +25% w/Rozier out (proj active)
PROP ALERT
Bam Adebayo
Miami Heat
Over 10.0 rebounds
64%
Embiid matchup = battle but +1.1 reb home; Drummond weak laterally
PROP ALERT
Tyler Herro
Miami Heat
Under 20.5 points
60%
PHI backcourt clamps shooters; proj 19.1 in tough matchup
PROP ALERT
Davion Mitchell
Miami Heat
Over 6.0 assists
59%
Rozier out = primary ballhandler; +1.3 ast proj
PROP ALERT
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Miami Heat
Over 13.5 points
57%
Minutes up w/injuries; favorable wing matchup
PROP ALERT
Quentin Grimes
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 2.0 three_pointers
56%
MIA weak perimeter rotation
PROP ALERT
Vladislav Goldin
Miami Heat
Under 4.5 rebounds
59%
Drummond/Embiid dominate glass; proj 3.8