Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL April 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Philadelphia Flyers

1.5

Sharp 53.2% edge on away spread + RLM + Market Consensus fair 65.3% away cover

Ω Bottom Line

Sharp 53.2% spread edge + RLM to PHI +1.5 despite PIT injury adv (+12.6%)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Philadelphia Flyers

Line: 1.5

62%

Sharp 53.2% edge on away spread + RLM + Market Consensus fair 65.3% away cover

MONEYLINE

Pittsburgh Penguins

60%

Net +12.6% injury edge to PIT; calibrated 59.7% exceeds breakeven by 1.3%

TOTAL

over

Line: 6.5

55%

Sharp 6.3% over edge + RLM; cross-market total over lean

Game Analysis

Flyers hammered by -18.9% injury impact (multiple forwards out/DTD) vs PIT's minor -6.3%, netting Pens +12.6% edge. Crosby (74 pts) torques home win prob to 64% vs 59.7% implied at -148. Poor data caps all leans, totals especially weak (losing tier performance).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 1.5 points 58%

Crosby leads team with 74 points; PHI injuries boost PP time (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 3.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Consistent shooter vs weakened PHI D (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Erik Karlsson Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 0.5 points 55%

51 points season; PHI forward injuries (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Erik Karlsson Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 0.5 assists 57%

PP1 driver with Crosby (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Anthony Mantha Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 0.5 goals 55%

33 goals season; PHI D depleted (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Anthony Mantha Pittsburgh Penguins

Under 2.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Volume shooter but PHI matchup suppresses (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Travis Konecny Philadelphia Flyers

Over 1.0 points 57%

68 points leader; PIT injury minor (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Travis Konecny Philadelphia Flyers

Over 3.0 shots_on_goal 58%

41 shots leader; high usage (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Owen Tippett Philadelphia Flyers

Under 0.5 goals 55%

Day-to-day risk + PIT D; 28 goals (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Owen Tippett Philadelphia Flyers

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Shooter despite injury cloud (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Travis Konecny Philadelphia Flyers

Over 0.5 assists 55%

Playmaker role (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Erik Karlsson Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 55%

D-man volume vs PHI (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 0.5 goals 57%

Sniper edge PHI injuries (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Owen Tippett Philadelphia Flyers

Over 0.5 points 56%

Usage bump if healthy (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Anthony Mantha Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 0.5 points 55%

Netfront vs weak PHI (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Travis Konecny Philadelphia Flyers

Under 0.5 goals 55%

PIT D suppresses finishers (model projection)

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