Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL May 02, 2026 04:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Philadelphia Flyers

1.0

Market Consensus fair value gives Flyers 68.5% cover prob vs market 50% implied on +1.0

Ω Bottom Line

Flyers +1.0: 21% sharp edge + RLM + $314k extreme whales (81% conf) vs Penguins -130 juice

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Philadelphia Flyers

Line: 1.0

65%

Market Consensus fair value gives Flyers 68.5% cover prob vs market 50% implied on +1.0

MONEYLINE

Philadelphia Flyers

62%

Extreme whale volume $314k (18 wallets, 81% conf) on Flyers + 21% sharp edge overrides 56.5% home posterior

TOTAL

under

Line: 6.0

57%

Market Consensus fair value 52.7% under vs 50% implied; NHL variance favors lower totals

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior 46% Penguins win vs market 57.6% with -7.8% edge to Flyers; MC 45.9% away win, covers +1 60% on even omega spread. Sharps 19.6% edge + RLM on away spread, Pinnacle +28% EV, extreme $301k whales 84% on Flyers. Injuries net +9.5% Pens but models/sharps override; low total fair under.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 1.0 points 60%

Model proj 1.2 pts vs line; consistent vs Flyers H2H

PROP ALERT

Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 0.5 goals 58%

Model proj 0.6 goals; high usage in playoffs

PROP ALERT

Erik Karlsson Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 59%

Model proj 3.1 SOG; powerplay volume

PROP ALERT

Anthony Mantha Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 0.5 points 57%

Model proj 0.7 pts; secondary scoring vs Flyers D

PROP ALERT

Anthony Mantha Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 2.0 shots_on_goal 58%

Model proj 2.4 SOG; favorable matchup

PROP ALERT

Erik Karlsson Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 0.5 points 56%

Model proj 0.6 pts from assists

PROP ALERT

Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 60%

Model proj 3.0 SOG; shoots often at home

PROP ALERT

Anthony Mantha Pittsburgh Penguins

Under 0.5 goals 55%

Model proj 0.4 goals; low conversion vs Flyers

PROP ALERT

Travis Konecny Philadelphia Flyers

Over 1.0 points 60%

Model proj 1.2 pts; high usage with injuries

PROP ALERT

Travis Konecny Philadelphia Flyers

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 59%

Model proj 3.0 SOG; volume shooter

PROP ALERT

Owen Tippett Philadelphia Flyers

Over 0.5 goals 58%

Model proj 0.6 goals; PP threat

PROP ALERT

Owen Tippett Philadelphia Flyers

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Model proj 2.9 SOG vs Penguins D

PROP ALERT

Travis Konecny Philadelphia Flyers

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Model proj 0.4 goals; Penguins goalie matchup

PROP ALERT

Owen Tippett Philadelphia Flyers

Over 0.5 points 59%

Model proj 0.8 pts; injury cascade boost

PROP ALERT

Travis Konecny Philadelphia Flyers

Over 0.5 assists 58%

Model proj 0.7 assists; playmaker role

PROP ALERT

Owen Tippett Philadelphia Flyers

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Model proj 0.3 assists; finisher not passer

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