Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers

Data quality is degraded (52%) — missing pitcher data, weather, and Monte Carlo simulations are forcing us to rely heavily on Bayesian market priors. The sharp spread signal (13.7% divergence toward home) and prediction market consensus (56.5% home, +3% vs sharp books) converge on a slight home side edge, but whale signals (61% volume on away) and missing pitcher data create real risk. The total is unplayable at this line with zero pitcher data. Best play is a small Lean on home moneyline at -120 — the Bayesian posterior of 56% vs market 54.5% gives a thin but positive EV of 2.6%. The +50% EV on the Bovada spread at +350 is genuine if the line is actually offered, but verify first. No player props qualify due to unvalidated roster data.