Philadelphia Union at Sporting Kansas City
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Union
0.5
Philadelphia's implied win probability (60.8%) is higher than the spread line suggests, as a pick'em with -165 juice still favors the stronger team.
Ω Bottom Line
Philadelphia Union moneyline at -155 shows +3.6 EV vs our 63% projection — a sharp lean on the road favorite.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Philadelphia Union
Line: 0.5
Philadelphia's implied win probability (60.8%) is higher than the spread line suggests, as a pick'em with -165 juice still favors the stronger team.
MONEYLINE
Philadelphia Union
Our model projects a 63% win probability vs the book's 60.8%, a +2.2% edge that translates to +$3.60 EV per $100.
TOTAL
over
Line: 3.5
MLS totals at 3.5 are often pushed over by the favorite's attacking strength; Philadelphia's implied dominance suggests they can contribute multiple goals.
Game Analysis
Philadelphia Union are heavy road favorites at -155, implying a 60.8% win probability against Sporting KC. Our model sees a slight edge at 63%, driven by the Union's stronger roster and KC's lack of home dominance. The total of 3.5 is standard, and with Philadelphia expected to control play, the over is a lean. Player props are limited due to no market comparison, but Andre Blake under 2.5 saves is a reasonable projection given the expected game script.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Andre Blake
Philadelphia Union
Under 2.5 saves
60%
Andre Blake is a top MLS goalkeeper, but Philadelphia is favored and expected to control possession, limiting KC's chances. His season save average is around 2.5, but against a weaker opponent on the road, expect fewer saves.
PROP ALERT
Alejandro Bedoya
Philadelphia Union
Over 0.5 assists
55%
Bedoya is a veteran midfielder who can contribute in attack. Against a Sporting KC defense that may be under pressure, he has a chance to get an assist, though his season average is low.