Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Flyers
-1.5
+32.8% EV on PHI puck vs Market Consensus fair value (29.5% cover) + 9.5% sharp divergence
Ω Bottom Line
Whales dump $328k extreme vol on PHI ML +9.5% sharp puck edge/+32.8% EV despite injury tilt to PIT
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Philadelphia Flyers
Line: -1.5
+32.8% EV on PHI puck vs Market Consensus fair value (29.5% cover) + 9.5% sharp divergence
MONEYLINE
Philadelphia Flyers
Extreme institutional whale action $328k (24 wallets, 94% on home) aligns with sharp spread
TOTAL
under
Line: 5.5
Strong sharp edge +10.6% on under vs retail over lean
Game Analysis
Sharps hammer Flyers -2 (9.3% edge, +31.5% EV vs Pinnacle) despite -18.9% injury hit; whales $14k home (95% conf) confirm over PM away lean. Penguins minor injury edge offset by H2H model 50/50. Under 6 fits suppressed scoring lambda adj.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Travis Konecny
Philadelphia Flyers
Over 2.5 shots_on_goal
58%
Model projection: high usage leader (41G/68A) vs PIT defense; home matchup boost
PROP ALERT
Owen Tippett
Philadelphia Flyers
Over 2.5 shots_on_goal
56%
Model projection: goals leader (28G) elevated shots in divisional rivalry
PROP ALERT
Travis Konecny
Philadelphia Flyers
Over 0.5 goals
55%
Model projection: multi-category leader, PHI injuries boost usage
PROP ALERT
Owen Tippett
Philadelphia Flyers
Under 0.5 goals
57%
Model projection: sniper but low volume vs PIT; injury cascade neutral
PROP ALERT
Sidney Crosby
Pittsburgh Penguins
Over 3.0 shots_on_goal
60%
Model projection: veteran leader (74 pts) consistent volume road
PROP ALERT
Sidney Crosby
Pittsburgh Penguins
Over 0.5 goals
56%
Model projection: PHI injuries create edge in rivalry
PROP ALERT
Erik Karlsson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Under 2.5 shots_on_goal
59%
Model projection: D-man avg suppressed vs PHI forecheck
PROP ALERT
Anthony Mantha
Pittsburgh Penguins
Over 2.0 shots_on_goal
55%
Model projection: 33G power forward usage up with injuries
PROP ALERT
Travis Konecny
Philadelphia Flyers
Over 0.5 hockey_points
57%
Model projection: assist/goal leader PHI home spot
PROP ALERT
Owen Tippett
Philadelphia Flyers
Under 0.5 hockey_points
56%
Model projection: goal-heavy, fewer multi-pt games
PROP ALERT
Sidney Crosby
Pittsburgh Penguins
Under 1.5 hockey_points
58%
Model projection: age/fatigue in road divisional
PROP ALERT
Erik Karlsson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Over 0.5 hockey_points
55%
Model projection: 51A PP threat vs PHI PK
PROP ALERT
Anthony Mantha
Pittsburgh Penguins
Under 0.5 goals
57%
Model projection: secondary scorer low conversion
PROP ALERT
Travis Konecny
Philadelphia Flyers
Over 2.5 shots_on_target
56%
Model projection: aggressive style, PIT matchup
PROP ALERT
Sidney Crosby
Pittsburgh Penguins
Over 3.0 shots_on_target
59%
Model projection: elite volume regardless of road
PROP ALERT
Erik Karlsson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Over 2.0 shots_on_goal
55%
Model projection: active D-man PHI soft matchup