Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Pittsburgh Pirates
0.0
simulation simulation favors Pirates covering 54.1% at PK line.
Ω Bottom Line
Pirates ML +125 has +22% EV vs prediction market, Under 22.5 has massive 68% cover rate in sims—model trusts the numbers.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Pittsburgh Pirates
simulation simulation favors Pirates covering 54.1% at PK line.
MONEYLINE
Pittsburgh Pirates
calibrated shows +9.7pp edge for Pirates vs prediction market, with high model agreement.
TOTAL
under
Line: 22.5
simulation projects only 20.4 runs, under hits 68.3% at -110 line. High edge confidence.
Game Analysis
Despite the Yankees' home edge in prediction markets, our Bayesian fusion (Poisson + ELO) gives Pittsburgh a 54.2% win probability, a 9.7pp edge. Monte Carlo sims agree, projecting 20.4 runs total—well under 22.5. Whale volume is extreme but split, while model convergence is high. Grade: strong value on Pirates ML and Under.