Portland Fire at Las Vegas Aces
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Portland Fire
11.5
OMEGA line (-2.5) vs market (-11.5) = 9-point gap; Aces missing 3 key players (-25% team impact) not priced in
Ω Bottom Line
Aces missing 3 key players (-25% impact) but market still lays -11.5 — OMEGA sees a 3-point game, giving Portland +11.5 at +11.5% EV
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Portland Fire
Line: 11.5
OMEGA line (-2.5) vs market (-11.5) = 9-point gap; Aces missing 3 key players (-25% team impact) not priced in
MONEYLINE
Portland Fire
calibrated gives Portland 21.1% win probability vs market 12.5% — +8.6pp edge; +484 odds imply 17.1% breakeven, we see 21.1%
TOTAL
under
Line: 178.5
calibrated shows 57.7% under probability vs market 50% — +7.7pp edge; both teams missing key offensive players (Latson, Yamamoto, Barker for Aces; Barker, Harrison for Fire)
Game Analysis
The market is massively overpricing the Aces at -11.5, ignoring that they're missing three key players (Latson, Yamamoto, Barker) — a -25% team impact. OMEGA's Poisson model sees a 3-point game, not a blowout. The Bayesian posterior gives Portland +11.5 a 61.5% cover probability vs the market's 50%, creating +11.5% EV. The spread is the strongest play here, with the moneyline as a low-probability but high-payout dart. The under also has value as both teams are missing offensive contributors. This is a classic 'market overreaction to brand name' spot.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
A'ja Wilson
Las Vegas Aces
Over 26.5 points
62%
Wilson is the focal point of the offense with Latson and Yamamoto out — usage should increase. She averages 26.1 PPG and faces a Portland defense missing key players. Model projects 28+ points in this spot.
PROP ALERT
Carla Leite
Portland Fire
Over 15.5 points
60%
Leite is Portland's leading scorer (15.3 PPG) and primary playmaker (6.0 APG). With Harrison out, Leite's usage should increase further. Aces' defense is strong but Leite will have the ball in her hands constantly.
PROP ALERT
Chelsea Gray
Las Vegas Aces
Over 7.5 assists
58%
Gray is the primary facilitator and with Latson/Yamamoto out, she'll need to create even more. Her 7.3 APG average is close to the line, and increased usage should push her over. Model projects 8+ assists.
PROP ALERT
Emily Engstler
Portland Fire
Over 5.5 rebounds
55%
Engstler is Portland's leading rebounder (5.3 RPG). With Barker out, she should see more minutes and rebounding opportunities. Aces have size but Engstler is active on the glass. Model projects 6+ rebounds.