Portland Timbers at San Jose Earthquakes
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
San Jose Earthquakes
-0.5
Home field advantage in MLS provides a consistent edge; San Jose's record (12-6-8) is stronger than Portland's (9-5-12).
Ω Bottom Line
San Jose +100 moneyline offers 6% EV vs market-implied 50% — home advantage and better record provide the edge.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
San Jose Earthquakes
Line: -0.5
Home field advantage in MLS provides a consistent edge; San Jose's record (12-6-8) is stronger than Portland's (9-5-12).
MONEYLINE
San Jose Earthquakes
Moneyline at +100 implies 50% win probability, but San Jose's home advantage and better record suggest ~53% true probability.
TOTAL
under
Line: 3.5
MLS average goals per game is ~2.7; total set at 3.5 is above average, and both teams have mid-table defensive records.
Game Analysis
San Jose's home record and Portland's below-average away form create a slight edge for the Earthquakes on both spread and moneyline. The total of 3.5 is above league average, making the under a reasonable lean. No sharp signals or injuries to adjust confidence.