Qatar at Canada

Canada is a heavy -360 favorite against Qatar, but that price carries zero margin for error — one goal from Qatar or a 1-0 Canada win and the ML bettor loses their entire stake at a -360 price. The spread of -1.5 is the only plausible way to bet Canada, and even then the vig at -120 demands a ~55% win rate by 2+ goals. Our fair probability estimation suggests a 2-goal win is borderline likely (maybe 40-45%), not enough to overcome juice. The total of 2.5 is the most intriguing angle — international break games, especially when one side is a heavy underdog, often produce single-goal outcomes. We project ~2.2 combined goals, giving a narrow edge to the under, but data quality is so poor (24% signal availability) that no bet here earns more than 0.5u interest.