Real Betis at Real Sociedad

La Liga May 09, 2026 07:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Real Betis

0.5

Away covers +0.5 in 61% of model sims matching ML posterior adjusted for draw likelihood

Ω Bottom Line

Betis -165 ML +0.4 EV from Kalshi 63.5% > book 60.8%, neutral Bayesian fusion

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Real Betis

Line: 0.5

55%

Away covers +0.5 in 61% of model sims matching ML posterior adjusted for draw likelihood

MONEYLINE

Real Betis

62%

Kalshi 63.5% away > book 60.8% creates 1.7pp edge after calibrated anchor

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

57%

LaLiga avg 2.65 goals/game regresses under 2.5 line in neutral matchup

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior anchors away ML at 60.8% matching devig but Kalshi 63.5% adds 1.7pp edge for +0.4 EV/+165. Whale home volume contradicts (-2 conf) but zero wallets mutes signal. Under 2.5 leans on LaLiga 2.65 avg goals; poor data caps all at LEAN.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Mikel Oyarzabal Real Sociedad

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 14 goals/30 matches = 0.47 avg < line; model proj 0.42

PROP ALERT

Mikel Oyarzabal Real Sociedad

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

High-usage forward proj 1.7 SOT vs Betis defense allowing 1.9/game to position

PROP ALERT

Ander Barrenetxea Real Sociedad

Under 0.5 assists 58%

Season 5 ass/28 = 0.18 avg well under line

PROP ALERT

Álex Remiro Real Sociedad

Over 3.0 saves 59%

89 saves est 3.0/g vs Betis pace projecting 11.2 shots faced

PROP ALERT

Ander Barrenetxea Real Sociedad

Under 0.5 goals 55%

Low scoring winger model proj 0.15 goals

PROP ALERT

Sergio Gómez Real Sociedad

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Defensive profile limits SOT volume to 0.4 avg

PROP ALERT

Álex Remiro Real Sociedad

Over 2.5 saves 58%

Alt line value on consistent save volume

PROP ALERT

Mikel Oyarzabal Real Sociedad

Under 2.0 shots_on_target 55%

Betis D ranks top-8 vs wingers, proj 1.6

PROP ALERT

Cucho Hernández Real Betis

Under 0.5 goals 60%

10 goals/29 = 0.34 avg < line; Sociedad D strong

PROP ALERT

Cucho Hernández Real Betis

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

Proj 1.3 SOT vs Remiro elite GK

PROP ALERT

Abde Ezzalzouli Real Betis

Under 0.5 assists 58%

8 ass/25 matches = 0.32 low volume

PROP ALERT

Álvaro Valles Real Betis

Over 2.5 saves 59%

77 saves est 2.6/g vs Sociedad attack projecting 10 shots

PROP ALERT

Pablo Fornals Real Betis

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Midfield role limits SOT to sub-0.5 proj

PROP ALERT

Abde Ezzalzouli Real Betis

Under 0.5 goals 55%

Winger secondary scorer proj 0.18

PROP ALERT

Álvaro Valles Real Betis

Under 3.0 saves 57%

Sociedad low shot volume proj 2.8 saves needed

PROP ALERT

Cucho Hernández Real Betis

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Usage boost proj 1.2 vs Sociedad

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