Real Salt Lake at FC Dallas

MLS May 10, 2026 12:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Real Salt Lake

0.5

OMEGA spread vs market DAL -0.5 (0.5pt edge to RSL) + MC home cover prob 44.9%

Ω Bottom Line

RSL ML +195 (53% posterior vs 34% implied, +57 EV) backed by extreme whales $1.15M

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Real Salt Lake

Line: 0.5

58%

OMEGA spread vs market DAL -0.5 (0.5pt edge to RSL) + MC home cover prob 44.9%

MONEYLINE

Real Salt Lake

55%

Posterior 53.3% vs market implied 33.9% (+19.4pp edge), breakeven 33.9% easily cleared

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

60%

Over posterior 64.9% vs market 50% (+14.9pp), OMEGA total vs 2.5

Game Analysis

Omega even spread vs market DAL -0.5 gives 0.5pt edge to RSL +0.5; ML +195 undervalues 53.3% posterior (33.9% implied) with extreme $1.15M whales on RSL. Over 2.5 at 64.9% posterior crushes 50% market despite totals weakness. Low agreement but EV dominates.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Diego Luna Real Salt Lake

Over 0.5 goals 62%

Model projection based on roster usage and form

PROP ALERT

Justen Glad Real Salt Lake

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Defender low volume projection vs Dallas

PROP ALERT

DeAndre Yedlin Real Salt Lake

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 60%

RB matchup limits chances

PROP ALERT

Rafael Real Salt Lake

Over 3.0 saves 64%

GK projection vs Dallas attack

PROP ALERT

Juan Arias Real Salt Lake

Over 0.0 goals 55%

Minimal projection

PROP ALERT

Alexandros Katranis Real Salt Lake

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Low usage defender

PROP ALERT

Philip Quinton Real Salt Lake

Over 0.0 shots_on_target 57%

Occasional set piece

PROP ALERT

Kobi Henry Real Salt Lake

Under 2.5 saves 61%

Backup GK low shots faced

PROP ALERT

Shaq Moore FC Dallas

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

RB low projection

PROP ALERT

Michael Collodi FC Dallas

Over 2.5 saves 63%

GK vs RSL attack

PROP ALERT

Sebastien Ibeagha FC Dallas

Under 0.0 shots_on_target 65%

CB minimal

PROP ALERT

Lalas Abubakar FC Dallas

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Defender projection

PROP ALERT

Geovane Jesus FC Dallas

Under 0.5 goals 62%

Matchup adjustment

PROP ALERT

Nolan Norris FC Dallas

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

Midfield limited

PROP ALERT

Enzo Newman FC Dallas

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Wing potential

PROP ALERT

Joshua Torquato FC Dallas

Over 0.0 goals 55%

Sleeper projection

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail