Real Sociedad at Rayo Vallecano

La Liga April 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Real Sociedad

-0.5

RSO better record (11-9-12 vs 9-11-12) and Oyarzabal 12 goals vs de Frutos 10

Ω Bottom Line

RSO -0.5 +135: 11-9-12 record + Oyarzabal edge yields +43 EV vs 42.6% breakeven

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Real Sociedad

Line: -0.5

58%

RSO better record (11-9-12 vs 9-11-12) and Oyarzabal 12 goals vs de Frutos 10

MONEYLINE

Real Sociedad

58%

RSO superior goal production from Oyarzabal (12G/28M) edges Vallecano's de Frutos (10G/30M)

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

53%

LaLiga avg ~2.5 goals, mild weather no over bias

Game Analysis

Pricing arb on RSO -0.5 +145 vs ML -165 (62% implied) with model 60% win prob yields +47 EV/100. No injuries, movement, or situ flags; Bayesian edge neutral at 0% but spread misprice drives value. Poor data caps conf despite tier profitability on lean spreads.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jorge de Frutos Rayo Vallecano

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 10G/30M = 0.33 avg < line (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jorge de Frutos Rayo Vallecano

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

52 shots/30M ~1.73 total shots, est SOT 0.7 < line (model)

PROP ALERT

Álvaro García Rayo Vallecano

Under 0.5 assists 59%

5A/31M = 0.16 avg << line (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Augusto Batalla Rayo Vallecano

Over 2.5 saves 57%

82 saves est /30M ~2.7 avg > line vs RSO attack (model)

PROP ALERT

Florian Lejeune Rayo Vallecano

Over 1.5 blocks 56%

High clearance leader, est blocks 1.7 vs RSO (model)

PROP ALERT

Sergio Gómez Rayo Vallecano

Under 0.5 assists 58%

Minutes leader but low creator, 0.2 est avg < line

PROP ALERT

Jorge de Frutos Rayo Vallecano

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Consistent shooter 52 shots/30M supports SOT (model)

PROP ALERT

Augusto Batalla Rayo Vallecano

Under 3.0 saves 57%

2.7 season avg < higher line projection

PROP ALERT

Mikel Oyarzabal Real Sociedad

Under 0.5 goals 60%

12G/28M = 0.43 avg < line (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Mikel Oyarzabal Real Sociedad

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

71 shots/28M ~2.5 total, est SOT 1.2 < line (model)

PROP ALERT

Gonçalo Guedes Real Sociedad

Under 0.5 assists 58%

4A/31M = 0.13 avg << line (model)

PROP ALERT

Álex Remiro Real Sociedad

Over 2.5 saves 57%

79 saves est /28M ~2.8 > line vs Rayo (model)

PROP ALERT

Sergio Gómez Real Sociedad

Under 0.5 assists 56%

Minutes leader low creator est 0.2 < line

PROP ALERT

Mikel Oyarzabal Real Sociedad

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

Star shooter supports SOT over (model)

PROP ALERT

Álex Remiro Real Sociedad

Under 3.0 saves 55%

Season avg 2.8 < higher line

PROP ALERT

Gonçalo Guedes Real Sociedad

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Usage supports minimal SOT (model)

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