San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Portland Trail Blazers
5.5
Net injury impact +10.3% home edge (Spurs -17% vs Portland -7%) with Wemby DTD
Ω Bottom Line
Portland +5.5 & ML +180: +10% net injury edge + extreme whale steam ($7M vol) vs -218 juice trap
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Portland Trail Blazers
Line: 5.5
Net injury impact +10.3% home edge (Spurs -17% vs Portland -7%) with Wemby DTD
MONEYLINE
Portland Trail Blazers
42% model prob vs 35.7% implied (+6.3% edge) on +180 with extreme $7.3M whale volume home
TOTAL
over
Line: 218.5
Sharp 18.9% edge over + +51.8% EV vs Market Consensus fair value (49.8% over)
Game Analysis
Market total 121.5 vs omega/MC 179-181 screams +45 EV over with sharp 20.9% edge and high MC 68.7% over rate. Portland +115 ML offers +11.8 EV at 52% our prob (Bayesian +2.8% edge) backed by extreme $4M whale volume on home and net +10.3% injury edge (Spurs -17.2% > Portland -6.9%). Spread lean Portland +2.2 despite late CLV signal, VERY_LOW model agreement caps at 60%.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Deni Avdija
Portland Trail Blazers
Over 24.0 points
62%
Lead usage boost with Lillard out, home matchup
PROP ALERT
Deni Avdija
Portland Trail Blazers
Over 6.5 rebounds
60%
Secondary rebounding role expands sans Lillard
PROP ALERT
Donovan Clingan
Portland Trail Blazers
Over 11.5 rebounds
61%
Primary board man, favorable Spurs frontcourt injuries
PROP ALERT
Jerami Grant
Portland Trail Blazers
Over 20.5 points
58%
Alpha scorer steps up with Lillard out
PROP ALERT
Scoot Henderson
Portland Trail Blazers
Over 5.5 assists
59%
PG duties increase post-Lillard
PROP ALERT
Shaedon Sharpe
Portland Trail Blazers
Over 16.5 points
57%
Wing volume up in depleted backcourt
PROP ALERT
Jrue Holiday
Portland Trail Blazers
Under 4.5 assists
60%
Facilitator but low usage in this roster
PROP ALERT
Toumani Camara
Portland Trail Blazers
Over 1.5 three_pointers
56%
Spot-up opportunities vs Spurs D
PROP ALERT
De'Aaron Fox
San Antonio Spurs
Over 27.5 points
63%
High usage lead guard, Blazers weak perimeter D
PROP ALERT
Stephon Castle
San Antonio Spurs
Over 7.0 assists
61%
Playmaking role expands with McLaughlin out
PROP ALERT
Harrison Barnes
San Antonio Spurs
Under 14.5 points
60%
Reduced role with Fox/Castle usage
PROP ALERT
Julian Champagnie
San Antonio Spurs
Over 2.0 three_pointers
57%
Shooting volume in rotation
PROP ALERT
Dylan Harper
San Antonio Spurs
Under 3.5 assists
59%
Limited playmaking in Fox-led offense