San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers

MLB May 12, 2026 11:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Milwaukee Brewers

-1.5

Strong sharp edge 13.9% on Brewers run line vs public +51% EV vs Market Consensus fair value (retail overprices home cover).

Ω Bottom Line

Brewers RL +13.9% sharp edge & $945k extreme whales home (87%) vs Pinnacle fair value

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Milwaukee Brewers

Line: -1.5

65%

Strong sharp edge 13.9% on Brewers run line vs public +51% EV vs Market Consensus fair value (retail overprices home cover).

MONEYLINE

Milwaukee Brewers

60%

calibrated 56.7% home fused with whales extreme home signal boosts our prob to 58% vs breakeven 56.7%.

TOTAL

under

Line: 8.5

56%

Market Consensus fair over 51.2% implies slight under value at retail; totals historically losing (48.7% WR).

Game Analysis

Extreme $929K whale volume (88% Home, institutional) boosts Bayesian Home ML posterior from 51.1% to 56% adjusted prob vs model -105 (+4.8 EV). MC sims favor Under 22.5 (78.6% hit, proj 19.0 total) but totals 48.7% historical WR caps conf; equal -7.8% injuries, no pitchers limit edges. Spread pick'em leans Home on +0.3 MC margin (49% cover).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Brice Turang Milwaukee Brewers

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Model projection: .298 BA projects 1.1 hits vs avg matchup (no pitcher data).

PROP ALERT

Jake Bauers Milwaukee Brewers

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

Season 6 HR low power projection under in neutral park.

PROP ALERT

William Contreras Milwaukee Brewers

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

26 RBI leader projects usage boost with Yelich IL.

PROP ALERT

Jacob Misiorowski Milwaukee Brewers

Over 6.5 strikeouts 59%

70 K, 2.45 ERA projects 7 K in model sim.

PROP ALERT

Aaron Ashby Milwaukee Brewers

Over 4.5 strikeouts 56%

Recent form projects moderate K vs Padres lineup.

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Over 0.5 hits 58%

.268 BA projects 0.9 hits baseline.

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Under 0.5 home_runs 57%

7 HR season low HR projection.

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Under 0.5 rbis 56%

23 RBI projects under without key injuries boosting.

PROP ALERT

Michael King San Diego Padres

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

2.76 ERA projects 6+ K vs Brewers.

PROP ALERT

Brice Turang Milwaukee Brewers

Over 1.5 total_bases 55%

High BA supports multi-base game projection.

PROP ALERT

William Contreras Milwaukee Brewers

Over 1.0 hits 56%

RBI leader correlates to hit projection.

PROP ALERT

Jake Bauers Milwaukee Brewers

Under 0.5 rbis 55%

Power over production, low RBI projection.

PROP ALERT

Michael King San Diego Padres

Over 6.0 strikeouts 58%

Strong K rate vs Brewers contact hitters.

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Under 1.5 total_bases 55%

Consistent but low power projection.

PROP ALERT

Jacob Misiorowski Milwaukee Brewers

Under 7.0 strikeouts 56%

Padres lineup limits upside K.

PROP ALERT

Aaron Ashby Milwaukee Brewers

Under 5.5 hits 57%

Projects allowed hits under vs Padres.

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