San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays

MLB May 01, 2026 11:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

San Francisco Giants

1.5

Market Consensus de-vigged fair 63.1% Giants +1.5 cover vs Public Line implied 42.4%

Ω Bottom Line

Giants +1.5 +113: +32 EV vs Pinnacle 63% fair cover, retail overprices Rays RL despite injuries

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

San Francisco Giants

Line: 1.5

62%

Market Consensus de-vigged fair 63.1% Giants +1.5 cover vs Public Line implied 42.4%

MONEYLINE

Tampa Bay Rays

60%

Extreme whale consensus (95% home, $1M+ volume tier EXTREME) boosts posterior to 60%

Game Analysis

Rays RL shows 14.8% sharp edge vs Pinnacle (fair 36.9%) with +EV at select books; extreme $1M whale volume 95% home confirms despite injury hit (-9.7% Rays). Bayesian ML posterior 57.6% matches market but signals boost to 58% our prob. Low 7.5 total with 1.70/2.55 ERAs favors under, data degraded reduces all conf.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Yandy Diaz Tampa Bay Rays

Over 1.0 hits 60%

Model projection 1.2 hits (.330 BA leader) vs Giants avg pitching

PROP ALERT

Junior Caminero Tampa Bay Rays

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

Season 8 HR (~0.2/gm) low variance projection

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Aranda Tampa Bay Rays

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

25 RBI leader usage boost in projection

PROP ALERT

Nick Martinez Tampa Bay Rays

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

1.70 ERA correlates to 5+ K projection vs Giants

PROP ALERT

Drew Rasmussen Tampa Bay Rays

Over 5.5 strikeouts 58%

32 K total projects 6 vs SF lineup

PROP ALERT

Steven Matz Tampa Bay Rays

Over 4.0 strikeouts 56%

Matchup-adjusted projection over line

PROP ALERT

Yandy Diaz Tampa Bay Rays

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Cleanup projection in Rays order

PROP ALERT

Junior Caminero Tampa Bay Rays

Under 1.5 total_bases 57%

Power bias but low contact projection

PROP ALERT

Luis Arraez San Francisco Giants

Over 1.0 hits 60%

.305 BA leader projects 1.3 hits vs Rays staff

PROP ALERT

Heliot Ramos San Francisco Giants

Under 0.5 rbis 58%

15 RBI season low per gm projection

PROP ALERT

Casey Schmitt San Francisco Giants

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

4 HR low power projection

PROP ALERT

Landen Roupp San Francisco Giants

Over 4.5 strikeouts 57%

2.55 ERA projects 5 K vs Rays

PROP ALERT

Luis Arraez San Francisco Giants

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Contact hitter edge in projection

PROP ALERT

Heliot Ramos San Francisco Giants

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Mid-order projection vs TB

PROP ALERT

Casey Schmitt San Francisco Giants

Under 1.0 total_bases 57%

Limited power/contact projection

PROP ALERT

Landen Roupp San Francisco Giants

Over 3.5 strikeouts 56%

Secondary K projection adjustment

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