SC Freiburg at Hamburg SV

Bundesliga May 10, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Hamburg SV

0.5

Est. 37% home win + 25% draw = 62% cover prob >> +130 implied 43.5% vigged (huge edge on draw cover)

Ω Bottom Line

SC Freiburg ML -135 (+9.7 EV, 63% posterior) + Hamburg +0.5 +130 (+42 EV on draw) w/ whale backing

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

SC Freiburg

61%

calibrated 63% on away ML exceeds vigged book implied 57.4% by 5.6pp

SPREAD

Hamburg SV

Line: 0.5

62%

Est. 37% home win + 25% draw = 62% cover prob >> +130 implied 43.5% vigged (huge edge on draw cover)

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

57%

Low team leader goal production (Vieira 0.22 gpg, Matanovic 0.28 gpg) projects sub-2.5 total

Game Analysis

Posterior aligns with de-vigged market at 63% SC Freiburg win but vigged -135 ML yields +9.7 EV per $100. Hamburg +0.5 +130 massive +42.6 EV est. factoring 25% draw prob (62% total cover). Moderate whales on away confirm; low-scoring leaders support under 2.5.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Fabio Vieira SC Freiburg

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 6 goals in 27 matches (0.22 gpg); model proj 0.2 vs typical 0.5 line

PROP ALERT

Fabio Vieira SC Freiburg

Under 0.5 assists 58%

Season 5 assists in 27 (0.19 apg); low usage proj 0.15

PROP ALERT

Matthias Ginter SC Freiburg

Under 0.5 assists 59%

CB with 4 assists in 30 matches (0.13 apg); defensive role limits

PROP ALERT

Noah Atubolu SC Freiburg

Under 3.5 saves 57%

95 saves in ~30 matches (3.17 spg); matchup vs HSV low shots proj 3.0

PROP ALERT

Noah Atubolu SC Freiburg

Over 2.5 saves 55%

Consistent 3.17 spg; alt line value vs weaker HSV attack

PROP ALERT

Matthias Ginter SC Freiburg

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

CB minimal shots; model proj 0.1 SOT

PROP ALERT

Fabio Vieira SC Freiburg

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

AM avg ~1.2 SOT; Freiburg possession vs HSV defense caps

PROP ALERT

Noah Atubolu SC Freiburg

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

GK no SOT; model proj 0

PROP ALERT

Igor Matanovic Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 goals 60%

8 goals in 29 matches (0.28 gpg); vs Freiburg defense proj 0.2

PROP ALERT

Daniel Heuer Fernandes Hamburg SV

Over 3.5 saves 59%

106 saves ~3.53 spg; Freiburg attack forces 4+ shots on target

PROP ALERT

Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer Hamburg SV

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Est. 63 total shots → ~1.3 SOT avg; tough Freiburg matchup

PROP ALERT

Johan Manzambi Hamburg SV

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

49 shots → ~1.1 SOT; secondary role proj under

PROP ALERT

Igor Matanovic Hamburg SV

Under 2.0 shots_on_target 56%

FW striker avg 1.8 SOT but Freiburg CB Ginter limits

PROP ALERT

Daniel Heuer Fernandes Hamburg SV

Under 4.5 saves 55%

3.53 spg vs Freiburg moderate attack proj 3.5 saves

PROP ALERT

Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Secondary FW low goal rate vs solid Freiburg backline

PROP ALERT

Johan Manzambi Hamburg SV

Under 0.5 goals 58%

MF minimal goals; model proj 0.1

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