Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins

MLB April 28, 2026 11:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

63% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Minnesota Twins

1.5

Omega independent spread 0.0 vs market SEA -1.5 creates +15% edge on Twins +1.5; model 63% home cover prob (mean margin 0, std 4.6)

Ω Bottom Line

Twins +1.5 63% MC cover vs omega pick'em (+32 EV); over 7.5 +15.2pp Bayesian edge (65% prob)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Minnesota Twins

Line: 1.5

63%

Omega independent spread 0.0 vs market SEA -1.5 creates +15% edge on Twins +1.5; model 63% home cover prob (mean margin 0, std 4.6)

TOTAL

over

Line: 7.5

60%

calibrated 65.2% over 7.5 vs market 50% (+15.2pp edge); OMEGA total confirms over bias

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior 59.8% Mariners win vs market 56.9% implied (+3% edge) with extreme $131k whales on away; MC 50.4% away at even spread, 75% under odd 22.5 total (proj 19.4). Equal injuries net zero, low model agreement caps conf. Props lean overs on K for Hancock/Bradley (recent form edges).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Taj Bradley Minnesota Twins

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

Model projection: 6.8 K expected vs Mariners (weak vs RHP); recent 37 K in ~6 GS (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Over 1.5 total_bases 58%

Model projection: 1.7 TB vs Mariners SP; season HR leader pace (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Ryan Jeffers Minnesota Twins

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

Model projection: 0.8 RBI; team RBI leader, cleanup spot usage (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Brooks Lee Minnesota Twins

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Model projection: 1.0 hit; .242 BA holds vs Mariners arms (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Taj Bradley Minnesota Twins

Under 2.5 earned_runs 59%

Model projection: 1.9 ER; 2.91 ERA strong (model-generated, note: earned_runs not standard but adjusted)

PROP ALERT

Ryan Jeffers Minnesota Twins

Under 1.0 hits 56%

Model projection: 0.7 hits vs Mariners (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

Model projection: 0.2 HR; HR pace regresses (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Brooks Lee Minnesota Twins

Under 1.0 total_bases 55%

Model projection: 0.9 TB low BA matchup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Emerson Hancock Seattle Mariners

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

Model projection: 5.3 K vs Twins; 2.86 ERA supports (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Cal Raleigh Seattle Mariners

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

Model projection: 0.2 HR; season 7 regresses vs Twins SP (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Randy Arozarena Seattle Mariners

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Model projection: 1.2 hits; .287 BA edge (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Cal Raleigh Seattle Mariners

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

Model projection: 0.8 RBI; team leader 17 pace (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Randy Arozarena Seattle Mariners

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Model projection: 1.6 TB vs Twins (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Emerson Hancock Seattle Mariners

Under 4.5 hits 55%

Model projection: 3.9 H allowed; strong ERA (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Cal Raleigh Seattle Mariners

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Model projection: 0.7 hits power profile (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Randy Arozarena Seattle Mariners

Over 0.5 runs 56%

Model projection: 0.6 R scored; leadoff potential (model-generated, note: runs added per MLB common)

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