Seattle Storm at New York Liberty

Liberty are heavy home favorites despite missing three key players (Sabally, Maley, Fiebich). The Bayesian model still sees a +14.2% edge on the moneyline vs market prior, and whale signals with $28k volume on the home side confirm sharp interest. However, the injury impact is real — Liberty's lambda drops 20.7% — and the spread model agreement is very low. The Storm get a net injury advantage but are still projected to lose by ~4 points. The total of 179 is near the model projection; Monte Carlo gives a slight over lean. With poor data quality and no historical WNBA calibration, all picks are capped at LEAN confidence. The strongest signal is the moneyline, but the juice (-193) requires a 65.8% win rate to break even — our posterior is 64.2%, so the edge is thin. Spread and total are marginal. Player props on Stewart (points over), Jones (rebounds over), Ionescu (assists over), and Hiedeman (points under) offer small edges based on usage adjustments.