Sevilla at Real Oviedo

La Liga April 05, 2026 04:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Sevilla

0.5

Model assigns 48% Sevilla win prob vs market-implied 66.1% on -0.5, creating mild value on road dog cover

Ω Bottom Line

Sevilla +195 ML: 48% model prob vs 33.9% breakeven (+4.8 EV) despite Oviedo home pricing

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Sevilla

Line: 0.5

58%

Model assigns 48% Sevilla win prob vs market-implied 66.1% on -0.5, creating mild value on road dog cover

MONEYLINE

Sevilla

68%

Sevilla +195 undervalued at 48% model prob (breakeven 33.9%, exceeds by 14%); Oviedo's 4-9-16 home record overpriced

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

60%

LaLiga avg 2.3 goals/game; both teams poor scoring (Oviedo 4W home, Sevilla midtable away) projects 2.1 total

Game Analysis

Pick'em market with Sevilla -0.5 at -230 overjuiced vs 52% model prob; Oviedo +185 ML offers +4.2 EV/100 with LaLiga home win rate 52% in even spots (N>1000). Total 2.5 under projected at 2.1 goals avg league pace. Props capped at 60 max due unvalidated 2026 rosters.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Akor Adams Real Oviedo

Under 0.5 goals 60%

7 goals in 24 matches = 0.29 G/90; poor Oviedo attack limits chances (model proj 0.3)

PROP ALERT

Federico Viñas Real Oviedo

Under 0.5 goals 58%

6 goals in 25 matches vs Sevilla D ranks midtable; home but low usage

PROP ALERT

Haissem Hassan Real Oviedo

Under 0.5 assists 59%

3 assists in 28 matches = low creativity; Sevilla limits service

PROP ALERT

Santi Cazorla Real Oviedo

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

Veteran playmaker but Oviedo low shots/game; model proj 1.1

PROP ALERT

Ilyas Chaira Real Oviedo

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Wing depth limited by Oviedo's 4W home pace

PROP ALERT

Rubén Vargas Sevilla

Under 0.5 assists 60%

4 assists in 15 matches; Oviedo D compact, low opp creation

PROP ALERT

Isaac Romero Sevilla

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Sevilla striker rotation limits volume vs solid Oviedo GK

PROP ALERT

Lukebakio Sevilla

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

Road game efficiency drops; proj 1.2 SOT

PROP ALERT

Djibril Sow Sevilla

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Midfielder secondary shooter; low volume expected

PROP ALERT

Nemanja Gudelj Sevilla

Under 0.5 assists 56%

Defensive mid low assist upside in low-scoring proj

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Francés Real Oviedo

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

CB rarely advances; minimal threat

PROP ALERT

Kike Salas Sevilla

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

CB low offensive involvement

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