Sevilla at Villarreal

La Liga May 13, 2026 05:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Villarreal

-0.5

Whale consensus (strong tier $78k) on home -0.5 at +100 where breakeven 50% vs our 51% prob

Ω Bottom Line

Villarreal ML +110 (+7.1 EV) on $78k strong whale steam vs juiced Sevilla -270

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Villarreal

Line: -0.5

55%

Whale consensus (strong tier $78k) on home -0.5 at +100 where breakeven 50% vs our 51% prob

MONEYLINE

Villarreal

55%

Home ML +110 undervalued at 47.6% implied vs our 51% boosted by strong whale signal

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

LaLiga avg 2.4 goals/game; team leaders <0.4 gpg (Mikautadze 11/30, Adams 9/29)

Game Analysis

Posteriors fuse to 47.6% Villarreal win matching +110 ML implied prob for flat EV; Sevilla 52.4% but -260 requires 72% breakeven (pass per rules). No situational edges, injuries, or models available (27% data). Moneylines profitable tier historically; pass game lines, monitor props.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Georges Mikautadze Sevilla

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection: 0.37 gpg season avg, low vs Villarreal defense (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Georges Mikautadze Sevilla

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 55%

Season shots 61 total low volume (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Renato Veiga Sevilla

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Midfield usage low in projections (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Odisseas Vlachodimos Sevilla

Over 3.5 saves 56%

Villarreal attack projects 10 SOG (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Akor Adams Villarreal

Under 0.5 goals 58%

9 goals/29 matches = 0.31 gpg (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Nicolas Pépé Villarreal

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 55%

High usage winger vs Sevilla (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Rubén Vargas Villarreal

Under 0.5 assists 56%

5 assists/21 low rate (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Luiz Júnior Villarreal

Over 2.5 saves 57%

Sevilla projects 8-10 SOG (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Enrique Salas Villarreal

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Defender low volume (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Akor Adams Villarreal

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

56 shots season, decent volume (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Georges Mikautadze Sevilla

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Goal-focused, low creator (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Nicolas Pépé Villarreal

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Assists specialist 6/34 matches (model-generated line)

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