Sporting Kansas City at St. Louis CITY SC
Ω
OMEGA PICK
57%
Lean
SPREAD
Sporting Kansas City
1.5
calibrated shows SKC cover at 56.6% vs market 50.0% — +6.6pp edge on +1.5
Ω Bottom Line
Bayesian edge +6.1pp on SKC +475 ML; OMEGA pick'em line vs -1.5 book shade = clear value on the away side.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Sporting Kansas City
Line: 1.5
calibrated shows SKC cover at 56.6% vs market 50.0% — +6.6pp edge on +1.5
MONEYLINE
Sporting Kansas City
calibrated gives away 36% vs market 29.8% — +6.1pp edge at +475 yields high EV
Game Analysis
The biggest edge in this game isn't on the moneyline — it's the total. OMEGA's Poisson model projects 7.5 total goals, while the market is stuck at 3.5. That's a 4-goal gap, the largest model-market discrepancy in the analysis. Bayesian fusion gives OVER 63.7% at market 50% — a +13.7pp edge worth +24.9 EV per $100. The moneyline also shows value: Sporting KC at +475 has a 36% win probability per the model vs 29.8% implied, yielding +107 EV. Whale volume is extreme ($357K) but split 55/45, suggesting no consensus. Data quality is degraded (55% signals available), so confidence is tempered, but the over is the sharpest play here.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Marcel Hartel
St. Louis CITY SC
Over 0.5 goals
60%
Team's leading scorer (3 goals in 12 matches, 0.25 per game). Lean to over given home status and solid shot volume; no market comp, confidence capped at 60.
PROP ALERT
Marcel Hartel
St. Louis CITY SC
Under 0.5 assists
58%
Only 3 assists on season (0.09 per game) — projection well below 0.5. Strong under lean despite home context.
PROP ALERT
Dejan Joveljic
Sporting Kansas City
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Team's leading scorer (6 goals in 14 matches, 0.43 per game). Under 0.5 is the projection but with low confidence given away form and solid scoring rate. Cap at 60.
PROP ALERT
Calvin Harris
Sporting Kansas City
Under 0.5 assists
58%
4 assists in 14 matches (0.29 per game) — under 0.5 is the projection. No market comparison; moderate confidence.