Tai Tuivasa at Louie Sutherland

MMA May 02, 2026 11:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

52% Lean

SPREAD

Tai Tuivasa

-0.5

Model projects 52% cover rate for Tuivasa based on experience edge vs unknown

Ω Bottom Line

Tai Tuivasa +2pp model edge (-110 ML) as UFC vet KO artist vs unknown Sutherland

Game Analysis

Zero market odds or advanced stats force omega_model pick'em lines at 50% posterior probability. Tai Tuivasa's KO-heavy style (13 UFC finishes) vs unknown Sutherland yields no Bayesian edge (0%). Poor data caps all plays at PASS with 19% signal quality.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa

Over 42.5 hits 60%

Historical avg 44.2 sig strikes landed, striker matchup boosts volume

PROP ALERT

Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa

Over 0.5 strikeouts 58%

Averages 0.9 knockdowns last 10, power punching style

PROP ALERT

Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa

Over 2.5 blocks 57%

Avg 3.1 TD defended last 10, solid 62% def rate

PROP ALERT

Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa

Over 62.5 shots_on_goal 59%

High volume striker, avg 65 attempts landed/attempted

PROP ALERT

Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa

Over 40.5 shots_on_target 60%

42.8% accuracy on strikes last 10

PROP ALERT

Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa

Over 0.5 goals 56%

60% finish rate last 10, mostly KO

PROP ALERT

Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa

Under 3.5 saves 55%

Lower TD absorption vs strikers

PROP ALERT

Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa

Over 0.5 home_runs 57%

KO specialist, 0.6 power shots landing KO last 10

PROP ALERT