Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

MLB May 13, 2026 11:07 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Tampa Bay Rays

1.5

OMEGA spread vs market TOR -1.5 (edge 1.5 pts); MC Rays cover +0 at 47.8% implies ~65% for +1.5

Ω Bottom Line

Rays +135 ML (52.5% posterior vs 38% implied, +14pp/+23 EV) + Over 7.5 (65% vs 50%, +15pp); whales $2M + model explosion

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Tampa Bay Rays

Line: 1.5

65%

OMEGA spread vs market TOR -1.5 (edge 1.5 pts); MC Rays cover +0 at 47.8% implies ~65% for +1.5

MONEYLINE

Tampa Bay Rays

53%

calibrated 52.5% Rays win vs market 38% (+14.4pp edge); omega ML Rays -267 heavy fav

TOTAL

over

Line: 7.5

60%

Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC proj 20.4 runs, OMEGA total

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior crushes Rays ML at 55.2% vs market 43.5% (-11.7pp edge) with Omega even spread vs -2.2 market juice. MC 10k sims project 9.9-9.9 (total edge +15) for 65% over 7.5 smash despite totals weak hist. Extreme $1.35M whales 77% Rays + sharp ML away signal, injuries even, data degraded caps conf.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Dylan Cease Toronto Blue Jays

Over 6.5 strikeouts 58%

2.58 ERA + 66 K leader; model proj 7.2 vs Rays lineup (no matchup adj due to missing data)

PROP ALERT

Ernie Clement Toronto Blue Jays

Over 1.0 hits 56%

.295 BA leader; proj 1.2 hits in high-pace model spot

PROP ALERT

Kazuma Okamoto Toronto Blue Jays

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

10 HR season but recent 0.3 avg; model proj 0.2 in neutral park

PROP ALERT

Kazuma Okamoto Toronto Blue Jays

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

26 RBI leader; usage boost in model high-total game

PROP ALERT

Ernie Clement Toronto Blue Jays

Under 1.5 total_bases 55%

Contact hitter proj 1.2 TB; fade in projected shootout

PROP ALERT

Dylan Cease Toronto Blue Jays

Under 6.5 strikeouts 54%

Variance in recent starts; Rays contact-heavy proj

PROP ALERT

Kazuma Okamoto Toronto Blue Jays

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Power profile fits model 20+ total

PROP ALERT

Ernie Clement Toronto Blue Jays

Under 0.5 steals 60%

Low speed profile; model proj 0.1

PROP ALERT

Nick Martinez Tampa Bay Rays

Over 5.5 strikeouts 59%

1.70 ERA leader; proj 6.1 K vs Jays

PROP ALERT

Chandler Simpson Tampa Bay Rays

Over 1.5 hits 57%

.314 BA; model proj 1.7 despite DT status

PROP ALERT

Junior Caminero Tampa Bay Rays

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

11 HR season but 0.3 recent avg proj

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Aranda Tampa Bay Rays

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

33 RBI leader; high-total boosts RBI proj 0.9

PROP ALERT

Junior Caminero Tampa Bay Rays

Over 1.5 total_bases 55%

Prospect power fits 20-run model

PROP ALERT

Nick Martinez Tampa Bay Rays

Under 5.5 strikeouts 54%

Recent dip proj 5.0 vs Jays

PROP ALERT

Chandler Simpson Tampa Bay Rays

Under 1.5 total_bases 56%

Contact but low power proj 1.3

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Aranda Tampa Bay Rays

Over 1.0 hits 57%

Consistent contact in model spot

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