Tennessee Volunteers at Michigan Wolverines OMEGA Picks — March 29, 2026

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SPREAD

Michigan Wolverines -7.5

Line: -7.5

68%

Model projects Michigan 78-70 win (8pt margin) based on Lendeborg's 14.9ppg home scoring vs Tennessee's unproven roster

TOTAL

Under 146.5

Line: 146.5

67%

Projected 148 total but March tournament pace adjustment -4pts for defensive intensity; combined leaders avg 51ppg

Game Analysis

Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg (14.9ppg) anchors 78-70 model projection covering -7.5; under 146.5 hits with March defensive regression (-4pts). Perfect 3-0 DDN vs these teams but N=0 sport sample caps sizing. Props lean overs on Michigan leaders' season avgs vs lines.

Game Theory & Utilization

Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg (14.9ppg) anchors 78-70 model projection covering -7.5; under 146.5 hits with March defensive regression (-4pts). Perfect 3-0 DDN vs these teams but N=0 sport sample caps sizing. Props lean overs on Michigan leaders' season avgs vs lines.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Yaxel Lendeborg Michigan Wolverines

Over 14.5 points 65%

Season avg 14.9 exceeds line; primary scoring option in home spot (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Morez Johnson Jr. Michigan Wolverines

Over 7.0 rebounds 62%

Rebound avg 7.3 vs line; frontcourt matchup favors volume (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Elliot Cadeau Michigan Wolverines

Over 5.5 assists 60%

Assist avg 5.7; playmaker role projects over in competitive game (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Nimari Burnett Michigan Wolverines

Under 11.0 points 61%

Secondary scorer projects 10.2 vs stacked Tennessee defense (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Roddy Gayle Jr. Michigan Wolverines

Over 9.5 points 59%

Wing usage projects slight over in fast-paced spot (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Aday Mara Michigan Wolverines

Over 6.5 rebounds 63%

Big man rebound projection 6.8; Tennessee weak on boards (model projection)