Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers

MLB May 02, 2026 11:15 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Texas Rangers

1.5

+EV analysis shows 63.2% fair cover rate for away run line vs retail pricing

Ω Bottom Line

Rangers ML +109 has +6.6 EV (51% posterior vs 43% implied) + over 8 +24 EV on model 22.5 total projection

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Texas Rangers

Line: 1.5

60%

+EV analysis shows 63.2% fair cover rate for away run line vs retail pricing

MONEYLINE

Texas Rangers

51%

calibrated 51% vs market 43.3% implied (+7.7pp edge); injuries hit home harder (-1.9% net)

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.0

60%

Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC projects 19.5 total, omega 22.5

Game Analysis

Sharp money signals strong 13.4% edge on Tigers -2.2 cover with +51.7% EV vs Pinnacle fair (33.7% home cover prob), outweighing extreme whale volume ($368k) on Rangers ML. Injuries net even at -8.7% home/-7.8% away with poor quality players out. No pitchers or weather limits conviction; Bayesian ML dead even at 53.5% home.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Over 6.5 strikeouts 60%

Season leader with 45 K's and 2.70 ERA; favorable matchup projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

6 HR leader but regression risk in low-total projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

20 RBI pace with injury usage boost (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Kevin McGonigle Detroit Tigers

Over 1.5 hits 57%

.314 BA leader projects multi-hit game (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Under 4.5 hits 56%

Strong 2.70 ERA limits hits allowed (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Over 1.5 total_bases 55%

Power hitter in high-total model spot (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 hits 59%

Consistent contact vs Rangers (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Kevin McGonigle Detroit Tigers

Over 1.0 total_bases 56%

High BA projects extra bases (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jacob deGrom Texas Rangers

Over 7.5 strikeouts 60%

Elite 2.01 ERA and K leader vs Tigers lineup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Corey Seager Texas Rangers

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

6 HR but Comerica suppresses power (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Josh Jung Texas Rangers

Over 1.5 hits 59%

.321 BA leader in even matchup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jake Burger Texas Rangers

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

19 RBI pace with cleanup potential (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Corey Seager Texas Rangers

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Consistent production in model high-total (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Josh Jung Texas Rangers

Over 1.0 total_bases 56%

Hot bat .321 projects value (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jacob deGrom Texas Rangers

Under 4.0 hits 60%

2.01 ERA dominates Tigers (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jake Burger Texas Rangers

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Power bat contact vs Tigers staff (model-generated)

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