Texas Rangers at New York Yankees

MLB May 05, 2026 11:05 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

New York Yankees

-1.5

Extreme whale action on home team despite zero calibrated edge

Ω Bottom Line

Extreme whale steam ($1.1M vol) on NYY despite flat Bayesian edge +0pp; lean run line -1.5

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

New York Yankees

Line: -1.5

55%

Extreme whale action on home team despite zero calibrated edge

MONEYLINE

New York Yankees

57%

Institutional whale consensus (extreme tier) aligns with Kalshi 54.5% home

Game Analysis

Bayesian edge +4.6pp on Rangers ML (+141 Kalshi) as posterior 46.1% > 41.5% implied despite MC 59.8% Yankees win/+1.6 margin. Extreme $1M whale action on Yankees (home) contradicts but volume-weighted high conv; injuries hit Yankees harder (-8.7% lambda adj). MC under 73% at 22.5 total w/ HIGH conf but totals 49.3% WR in leans.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 home_runs 58%

Season HR leader (14); model projection favors power in neutral matchup

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.9 hits 56%

Consistent contact hitter; projection vs Rangers staff

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Under 1.5 total_bases 55%

Day-to-day injury risk; .343 BA but volume limited

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Over 5.5 strikeouts 57%

1.52 ERA leader; 53 K projection fits

PROP ALERT

Josh Jung Texas Rangers

Over 0.9 hits 56%

.325 BA leader; solid vs righties

PROP ALERT

Corey Seager Texas Rangers

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

6 HR season; Yankee Stadium suppresses LHB slightly

PROP ALERT

Jake Burger Texas Rangers

Over 0.5 rbis 54%

20 RBI; cleanup projection

PROP ALERT

MacKenzie Gore Texas Rangers

Under 4.5 strikeouts 53%

4.67 ERA; Yankee lineup strikes out less vs LHP

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 rbis 59%

27 RBI leader; middle order usage

PROP ALERT

Josh Jung Texas Rangers

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Hot BA; model projects extra base hit potential

PROP ALERT

Corey Seager Texas Rangers

Under 1.0 hits 55%

Road splits weaker; no lineup protection noted

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Rangers

Over 4.5 strikeouts 56%

Recent form 5 K avg; Rangers K-prone

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 hits 54%

.343 BA but day-to-day caps upside

PROP ALERT

Jake Burger Texas Rangers

Under 1.0 total_bases 53%

Power over contact; Yankee pitchers limit TB

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

Elite projection in home park

PROP ALERT

MacKenzie Gore Texas Rangers

Under 5.0 strikeouts 54%

Elevated ERA suggests command issues vs Yankees

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail