Texas Rangers at New York Yankees

MLB May 07, 2026 04:35 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Texas Rangers

1.5

OMEGA spread vs market -1.5; model 10k sims project home +0.6 margin (58% Rangers cover +1.5)

Ω Bottom Line

Rangers +1.5 58% cover (omega 0.0 vs mkt -1.5, MC +0.6) + O8.5 +15.2pp edge (MC 19.8 total)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Texas Rangers

Line: 1.5

58%

OMEGA spread vs market -1.5; model 10k sims project home +0.6 margin (58% Rangers cover +1.5)

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.5

62%

calibrated 65.2% over 8.5 vs market 50% (+15.2pp edge); MC avg score 10.2-9.6 (19.8 total)

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior matches market at 54.5% Yankees ML with 0% edge, but extreme $388k whale volume on Rangers + net -1.8% injury hit to home boosts away cover prob to 62% on +1.5. Schlittler (1.52 ERA, 53K) dominates vs Gore (4.67), projecting 7.2 total runs. Poor data (48% signals) caps all conf; model-generated spread/total.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.0 hits 60%

Model projects 1.3 hits; season leader in power, strong vs RHP matchup

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 home_runs 58%

Model projects 0.7 HR; 15 HR leader, favorable wind/temp projection

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.5 total_bases 62%

Model projects 2.3 TB; high-usage vs Rangers SP

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 rbis 59%

Model projects 0.9 RBI; cleanup spot usage boost

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 hits 60%

Model projects 1.0 hit; .343 BA leader, soft matchup

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Over 5.5 strikeouts 61%

Model projects 6.5 K; 1.52 ERA leader, high K/9 vs Rangers

PROP ALERT

Will Warren New York Yankees

Over 4.5 strikeouts 58%

Model projects 5.3 K; volume IP leader (53), favorable spot

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 1.0 total_bases 57%

Model projects 1.5 TB; hot bat .343 BA

PROP ALERT

Josh Jung Texas Rangers

Over 1.0 hits 60%

Model projects 1.6 hits; .323 BA leader, vs weak Yankees arms

PROP ALERT

Corey Seager Texas Rangers

Over 1.5 total_bases 61%

Model projects 2.0 TB; consistent power (7 HR), home/away split

PROP ALERT

Jake Burger Texas Rangers

Over 0.5 rbis 59%

Model projects 1.2 RBI; 21 RBI leader, middle order

PROP ALERT

Jacob deGrom Texas Rangers

Over 6.5 strikeouts 60%

Model projects 7.8 K; 3.11 ERA ace dominates Yankees lineup

PROP ALERT

Josh Jung Texas Rangers

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

Model projects 1.8 TB; high BA sustains multi-hit games

PROP ALERT

Corey Seager Texas Rangers

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Model projects 1.3 hits; steady contact hitter

PROP ALERT

Jake Burger Texas Rangers

Over 0.5 hits 57%

Model projects 1.1 hits; RBI producer bats protected

PROP ALERT

Jacob deGrom Texas Rangers

Under 7.5 strikeouts 55%

Model projects 7.2 K; Yankees contact-heavy but cap due to pitch count

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